Wildfire mitigation can reduce expected losses by up to 70%
SAN MATEO, Calif., Sept. 8, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — New wildfire analysis from Guidewire HazardHub classifies over one million California homes as “very high risk,” while showing that property-level mitigation can cut expected losses by up to 70%. The comprehensive dataset reveals evolving exposure across suburban and wildland-urban interface (WUI) zones nationwide, giving insurers parcel-level visibility to better price and manage catastrophe risk.
Built on HazardHub parcel-level data, historical wildfire modeling, and inspection research, the study provides a detailed roadmap of evolving catastrophe exposure across the United States.
While California continues to lead the nation in total high-risk properties, with more than one million homes receiving HazardHub’s highest “F” wildfire risk designation (“very high risk”), the study revealed additional key findings, including:
Top 10 states by total homes at “very high risk” (F-rated): California, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, New Mexico, Washington, Nevada, Montana, Texas, and Idaho. (Note: Pure exposure drops significantly after California)Texas enters the top 10 with 31,106 “F-rated” homes, highlighting growing wildfire exposure outside traditionally recognized Western marketsTop 5 states by percentage of homes at “very high risk”: Montana, California, New Mexico, Wyoming, and Oregon
The findings indicate that wildfire exposure is expanding alongside population growth, suburban development, and the growth of the wildland-urban interface (WUI). However, analysis shows that exposure in California remains highly concentrated as approximately 98% of wildfire-related property damage occurs within roughly 10% of the state’s highest-risk properties.
“Wildfire exposure, particularly in California, is highly concentrated and variable at the property level,” said Chris Folkman, Vice President, HazardHub at Guidewire. “Broad regional assumptions overlook meaningful differences between neighboring properties. Parcel-level intelligence helps insurers recognize individual mitigation efforts, price risk accurately, and support broader insurance availability.”
The ZIP Code Misconception
Recent research conducted jointly by the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Guidewire HazardHub found that neighboring properties within the same wildfire-prone ZIP code can differ by more than fourfold in overall risk scores. Factors such as vegetation density, topography, defensible space, and fire suppression access create vastly different risk profiles on the same street.
Guidewire HazardHub models evaluate these granular environmental variables alongside historical ignition patterns and localized weather data to deliver true parcel-level risk scoring.
Wildfire Risk Mitigation Data
Analyzing approximately 91,800 California home inspections alongside historical damage data, HazardHub identified massive loss-reduction benefits tied to property hardening:
Defensible Space: Homes with well-maintained defensible space were 65% less likely to experience significant wildfire damageEmber-Resistant Vents: Properties with ember-resistant vents showed a 40% lower likelihood of ignition compared to unmitigated homesComprehensive Mitigation: Combining multiple resiliency measures reduced overall expected wildfire losses by up to 70%
These findings support the California Sustainable Insurance Strategy’s goal of expanding insurance availability through advanced risk modeling and mitigation incentives.
Additional wildfire maps, property risk resources, and mitigation guidance are available at guidewire.com/hazardhub.
About Guidewire HazardHub
HazardHub is the industry’s most comprehensive property risk intelligence platform, delivering 50+ predictive peril scores and 1,200+ individual risk factors for every address. Natively embedded into insurance workflows, HazardHub enables insurers to automate underwriting, match rate-to-risk, and manage portfolios effectively. For more information, visit www.hazardhub.com.
About Guidewire Software
Guidewire is the platform P&C insurers trust to engage, innovate, and grow efficiently. More than 570 insurers in 44 countries, from new ventures to the largest and most complex in the world, rely on Guidewire products. With core systems leveraging data and analytics, digital, and artificial intelligence, Guidewire defines cloud platform excellence for P&C insurers.
We are proud of our unparalleled implementation record, with 1,700+ successful projects supported by the industry’s largest R&D team and consulting partner ecosystem. Our marketplace represents the largest partner community in P&C, where customers can access hundreds of applications to accelerate integration, localization, and innovation.
For more information, please visit www.guidewire.com and follow us on X and LinkedIn.
Contact:
Melissa Cobb
Director, Public Relations
Guidewire Software, Inc.
+1.650.464.1177
mcobb@guidewire.com
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SOURCE Guidewire Software
