Key takeaways:

Bitcoin price maintains its bullish momentum, but a sentiment indicator suggests the market could be overheating. 

Data highlights Bitcoin traders taking profits and a lopsided market angled toward longs.

Analysts warn of a potential short-term correction, especially if gold weakens or seasonal trends play out.

Optimism has returned to the crypto markets, and many traders believe Bitcoin (BTC) price is on the path to new all-time highs. In just one month, Bitcoin surged 39%, briefly crossing the $105,000 mark. According to Glassnode analysts, “there are signs of renewed market strength, and the market is trading within a profit-dominated regime.”

Still, not everyone is convinced the rally will continue unchecked. Some investors are already taking profits, pushing Bitcoin’s realized cap to an all-time high of $889 billion. Even more profit-taking is expected at the $106,000 level.

Historically, euphoric market sentiment has often led to periods of consolidation—or even sharp corrections. That risk may be growing, particularly as gold, whose price action Bitcoin has closely mirrored in recent months, is showing signs of fatigue and could be heading for a correction itself.

Most investors are back in profit

The recent Bitcoin rally has returned over 3 million BTC to a profitable state, according to Glassnode. This shift has reignited capital inflows, which exceeded $1 billion per day, suggesting strong demand-side interest and a market willing to absorb selling pressure. Even most short-term holders who were underwater since the December 2024 peak have seen their portfolios turn green.

BTC short-term holders’ relative unrealized loss. Source: Glassnode

This relief, both financial and psychological, is already translating into spending behavior. The net difference between short-term holders’ transfer volume in profit versus at a loss has swung sharply to +20%—a notable reversal from the -20% seen during the capitulation phase at the end of April.

Institutional investor confidence is also rebounding. Over the past three weeks, more than $5.7 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, according to CoinGlass. The total assets under management held within the US spot ETFs have now climbed to over 1.26 million BTC, a new all-time high.

Are crypto traders too euphoric right now?

With so much momentum, it’s easy to imagine a moonshot. But that same momentum may be cause for caution. BTC’s open interest has climbed to $68 billion, near all-time highs, indicating a heavily positioned market. In such conditions, even a small catalyst could spark an outsized move—up or down.

André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management, warned that Bitcoin might be getting a bit ahead of itself. He posted Bitwise’s in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index, which has reached its highest level since November 2024. The index, which includes 15 sub-indicators spanning sentiment, flows, onchain data, and derivatives (such as the perpetual funding rate and put-call volume ratio), now shows an overheated market.

Bitcoin price vs Cryptoasset sentiment index. Source: Bitwise

In comments to Cointelegraph, Dragosch said,

“The latest readings imply that market sentiment has become overheated and that positioning appears to be one-sided on the long side. It tends to signal an increased risk for a temporary pull-back in the price of Bitcoin, and that the current rally could take a break.”

Yet, Dragosch remains “structurally constructive” until the end of 2025, citing the continued BTC accumulation by corporations and ETPs, which continues to deplete Bitcoin on-exchange balances.

Related: Arizona governor kills two crypto bills, cracks down on Bitcoin ATMs

Potential crypto market headwinds

Several risks could challenge Bitcoin in the short term.

For Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, renewed regulatory uncertainty is a top concern, particularly after the Senate stalled stablecoin legislation last week.

Broader shifts in market behavior may also be at play. Since March 2025, Bitcoin has shown a stronger correlation with gold than with equities. That shift followed dramatic changes in US policy, which appeared to steer capital toward politically neutral assets: both Bitcoin and gold rose 22% (the latter since corrected to a 13% gain). At the same time, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 merely clawed back earlier losses.

BTC/USD vs gold, SPX, and NDX 1-day. Source: Marie Poteriaieva, TradingView

This divergence continues on shorter time frames. Since May 12, major US indexes gained 3% to 4% on positive developments in US-China trade relations, but Bitcoin barely budged. Meanwhile, gold has started printing lower highs—a potential early signal of a downtrend, as noted by analyst Michael Van de Poppe. If gold enters a corrective phase, Bitcoin might follow suit.

Seasonality may also play a role. The adage “Sell in May and go away” has some historical backing. As analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted, May has typically been a green month for Bitcoin (averaging over 8%), while June and September are often the worst-performing months. As he put it,

“Seasonality is never something to solely base your decisions on, but it can work out well. Many investors are watching the same thing after all.”

Whether this rally has more room to run—or is due for a breather—may soon be put to the test.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Proponents of a bill to regulate stablecoins in the US Congress will likely take up another vote on the legislation in a matter of days without responding to concerns about President Donald Trump’s financial ties to the cryptocurrency industry.

The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, or GENIUS Act, failed to get enough votes to pass in the US Senate on May 8 amid calls from some Democratic lawmakers to halt any legislation related to digital assets until Republicans could address Trump’s potential conflicts of interest.

Immediately following the vote, some lawmakers from both parties suggested they could reconsider the bill as early as this week, but without agreeing on a bipartisan path forward.

After the GENIUS Act failed to proceed in a 48 to 49 vote in the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune made a motion to reconsider, setting up a possible vote on the matter within days. A source familiar with the matter told Cointelegraph Republicans who backed the bill were unlikely to modify it to block Trump or any member of his administration from investing in digital assets, claiming it was beyond Congress’s authority under the Constitution.

“[…] this delay is not inherently detrimental,“ said Liat Shetret, vice president of global policy and regulation at blockchain analytics firm Elliptic. “We can expect the bill to return to the floor, with this pause giving both parties time to clarify provisions and address lawmakers’ concerns.”

The Cedar Innovation Foundation, an organization tied to the political action committee (PAC) Fairshake, issued a warning to Senate leadership to “avoid political games” and pass a stablecoin bill “in the coming days.” Fairshake spent more than $131 million to support candidates in the 2024 US elections, some of whom are currently serving in the House and Senate. There are still more than 500 days until the 2026 midterms, when many members of Congress are up for reelection.

On May 12, the Senate resumed consideration of the motion to proceed to consideration of the GENIUS Act, suggesting another vote soon.

Related: US Treasury Secretary expresses support for crypto bills at hearing

Changes to stablecoin or market structure bills?

Should Republicans in the Senate reintroduce the bill without any changes, it’s unclear whether they would have enough support to clear a 60-vote majority to avoid a Democratic filibuster — a process to delay or sometimes block a vote on a bill.

The Trump family’s ties to the crypto platform World Liberty Financial and its stablecoin, USD1, have raised potential corruption concerns, as has offering the top holders of his TRUMP memecoin the chance to pay for access to the president through an exclusive dinner and reception. 

“[…] the Republicans’ bill did nothing to address Trump’s conflict, and instead voted to hand Trump the authority to write the rules over his and his competitors’ stablecoins,” said Democratic Representative Maxine Waters in a May 6 statement. She blocked a hearing to discuss a possible digital asset market structure bill, citing concerns about Trump’s “ownership of crypto.”

Democratic lawmakers have already introduced possible solutions to what they called the “biggest corruption scandal in the history of the White House” — with legislation in the House and Senate to bar members of Congress, the president, the vice president, and their families from profiting off memecoins. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Chris Van Hollen also reportedly called on the president to fully divest from USD1 before making any possible deals with foreign governments.

The nonpartisan organization State Democracy Defenders Action reported in April that Trump’s crypto holdings were worth roughly $2.9 billion, which accounted for 40% of his wealth. This report came before the launch of World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, which an Abu Dhabi-based investment firm said it would use to settle a $2 billion investment in Binance. Trump’s sons, Eric, Donald Trump Jr., and Barron, were all listed as “Web3 ambassadors” for the platform.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

Key Takeaways:

Declining Bitcoin dominance and rising strength in altcoins and memecoins could be a sign that it’s altseason.

USDT dominance could drop to 2022 lows, indicating an accelerating capital rotation into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

The cryptocurrency market shows signs that an altseason, a period where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin (BTC), could be on the horizon. Technical charts and market sentiment align to suggest that May 2025 might start a broader altcoin rally, driven by key indicators and shifting capital flows.

The TOTAL2 chart, representing the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin, has broken above a downtrend line in place since January 2025. This breakout is accompanied by a bullish break of structure (BOS) on the daily chart, forming higher-low patterns.

TOTAL2 chart 1-day. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A decisive move above the $1.25 trillion resistance level could support a decisive uptrend comprised of higher lows and higher highs. This shift signals capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins.

Similarly, the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart is signaling a potential market peak, having declined 4% over the past six days—the steepest drop since November 2024. A falling BTC.D typically indicates capital flowing from Bitcoin to altcoins, enabling altcoins to gain market share and drive collective price surges.

Michael Van Poppe, founder of MN Capital, highlighted this trend, noting a bearish divergence accompanied by declining volume. The analyst said,

“Strong bearish divergence on the weekly timeframe, indicating that the #Bitcoin dominance has peaked. The end of the bear market for #Altcoins.”Bitcoin dominance analysis by Michael Van Poppe. Source: X.com

Related: History rhymes? XRP price gained 400% the last time whale flows flipped

USDT dominance could dip to new lows

The tether (USDT) dominance chart has dropped to its lowest level since early February, at 4.59% on May 13. As illustrated below, the USDT.D chart may find support around 3.90%, as it exhibits a descending triangle pattern. A bearish breakout could lead to new lows since 2021, matching previous altseason levels.

USDT. Dominance 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

USDT dominance declines imply capital rotation occurs in other assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. Over the past seven days, Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL) have gained 44.3%, 20.6% and 22% respectively, compared to BTC’s 10% rise.

Complementing the recovery with a deeper analysis, crypto trader ZERO IKA observed that many altcoins have formed a higher time frame break of structure above their February and March highs.

The analyst noted that despite recent upside, most altcoins remain 70% to 90% below their all-time highs, indicating a “relatively early” opportunity for a recovery.

The weakening stablecoin and Bitcoin dominance, coupled with a rise in altcoin market cap, opens the door for an altseason, as long as the above key trends remain intact.

Related: Dogecoin traders predict 180% DOGE price rally if Bitcoin gains continue

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.