The Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs could collapse US demand for Bitcoin mining rigs, which would benefit mining operations outside the country as manufacturers will look outside the US to sell their surplus inventory for cheaper, says Hashlabs Mining CEO Jaran Mellerud.

“As machine prices rise in the U.S., they could paradoxically decrease in the rest of the world,” Mellerud said in an April 8 report. “The demand for shipping machines to the U.S. is set to plummet, likely nearing zero.”

“Manufacturers will be left with excess stock originally intended for the US market. To offload this surplus, they’ll likely need to lower prices to attract buyers in other regions,” he added.

Falling mining rig prices could see non-US mining operations scale up and take a larger slice of Bitcoin’s total hashrate, Mellerud said.

Source: Jaran Mellerud

US President Donald Trump unveiled his administration’s “reciprocal tariffs” on nearly every country on April 2. Some of the largest crypto mining machine makers are based in countries hardest hit by the tariffs, including Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, which saw tariffs of 36%, 32% and 24%, respectively.

Crypto mining rig makers Bitmain, MicroBT and Canaan moved to some of these countries to circumvent a 25% tariff that Trump imposed on China in 2018 during his last administration.

Annual change in US tariffs on China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand since 2017. Source: Hashlabs Mining

Mellerud noted that Trump’s latest tariffs would mean a mining rig that initially costs $1,000 would be priced at $1,240 in the US.

“Meanwhile, in Finland and most other countries, there are no tariffs, so the cost of a $1,000 machine remains unchanged.”

“In an industry as cost-sensitive as Bitcoin mining, a 22% price increase on machines can make operations financially unsustainable,” he added.

No coming back from Trump’s tariffs — ‘Damage is done’

Mellerud believes a future reversal of the Trump administration’s tariffs wouldn’t restore US crypto mining operators’ confidence.

“Even if these tariffs are rolled back within a few months, the damage is done — confidence in long-term planning has been shaken,” Mellerud said. “Few will feel comfortable making major investments when critical variables can change overnight.”

He said US miners felt reassured when Trump returned to the White House, expecting a more stable regulatory environment. 

Related: Bitcoin hashrate tops 1 Zetahash in historic first, trackers show

“But they are now experiencing the flip side of his unpredictable policy shifts,” Mellerud said.

The US accounts for nearly 40% of the network’s hashrate. Mellerud said there’s no reason for US miners to unplug their machines and doesn’t expect the total Bitcoin hashrate coming from the US to drop.

However, the path to expansion is now “steep and uncertain,” he said, and as a result, the US could lose a considerable share of hashrate. 

Trump’s tariffs have shaken up almost every market, including the crypto markets and Bitcoin (BTC), which is down 4% over the last 24 hours to $76,470, CoinGecko data shows.

Bitcoin is now 30% off the $108,786 all-time high it set on Jan. 20 — the same day that Trump re-entered the White House.

Magazine: Crypto fans are obsessed with longevity and biohacking: Here’s why