Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin short-term holders are back in profit, increasing chances for a rally to $100,000.

Long-term holders added 363,000 BTC since February, with new buyers injecting capital in April.

Bitcoin sell pressure risk exists at $97,000, where 392,000 BTC could be sold.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) surge above $91,700 on April 22 pushed its value above the short-term realized price or cost basis. This implies that a majority of short-term holders (STHs) are currently back in profit.

STHs returning to profit after unrealized losses signal a bullish outlook, paving the way for a potential $100,000 retest.

Bitcoin short-term onchain cost basis bands. Source: Glassnode

Historically, during the early phase of a rally, STHs in profit provided upward momentum by holding firm and drawing in new investors. Bitcoin’s supply mapping indicated “strong activity” in April from first-time buyers, indicating fresh capital injections in the market at higher prices. 

Long-term holders (those holding for more than 155 days) increased their allocation by 363,000 BTC since February, while Bitcoin whales and sharks have absorbed 300% of the yearly issuance. 

Despite this week’s price breakout, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that the last strong resistance remains at $96,100. In an X post, the analyst said, 

“At the $96K level, there will be the final resistance from the cohort holding coins for 3-6 months, after which the next target of $100K opens up.”Bitcoin realized price analysis. Source: X.com

Related: Why is Bitcoin price up today?

392,000 Bitcoin at $97K could trigger a sell-off

According to Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution data, investors hold approximately 392,000 BTC at an average cost basis of $97,000, creating a potential resistance zone. This concentration suggests many investors may sell at break-even, potentially stalling Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

Bitcoin cost basis distribution chart. Source: X.com

However, anonymous trader Ezy Bitcoin emphasized Bitcoin’s price action in the Wyckoff reaccumulation phase is “playing out beautifully”. The chart indicated continued strength, with three price targets: $131,500 (target 1), $144,900 (target 2), and $166,700 (target 3). 

This Wyckoff pattern points to possible accumulation by large players, signaling an upward trend for Bitcoin, as the market absorbs supply and prepares for an uptrend.

Bitcoin Wyckoff pattern analysis by Ezy Bitcoin. Source: X.com

Related: Bitcoin price prepares for ‘70% to 80%’ gain as onchain metrics and spot BTC ETF inflows spike

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.