WARRINGTON, England, Oct. 20, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Six in ten retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers are worried about their supply chains and expect rising sourcing and transport costs over the next year. The right kind of AI could ease that pressure, according to experts. But adoption in these sectors lags behind the rest of the UK economy, and fewer businesses there say AI is actually improving how they operate.

AI use among UK businesses has climbed to 34.7% as of June 2026, according to Office for National Statistics data. Manufacturing sits at 26.9%, while the wholesale and retail sector sits at 28.4%. The industries that keep Britain’s shops stocked and factories running have adopted AI more slowly than the country as a whole.

Inefficient supply chains are one of several drivers of rising prices, and part of the cost tends to land on the shopper. AI built for forecasting could ease some of that pressure, according to Sigrún Gunnhildardóttir, CPO at AGR Inventory, a company providing demand forecasting and inventory planning software to wholesalers, retailers and manufacturers.

“A lot of it comes down to reactive procurement, paying a premium for expedited freight and emergency safety stock because the shortage wasn’t forecast. It’s a real driver of margin compression, and some of it shows up in the price consumers pay,” says Sigrún.

Nationally, close to 59% of businesses using AI say it’s improving their operations, the single most common reason given. In manufacturing, wholesale and retail, that figure drops to around 47%, roughly 12 points behind the national average, despite these being the sectors where operational tools like forecasting and inventory planning could counteract rising prices.

“Looking at the numbers, most of what’s been adopted in these sectors won’t help anyone decide how much stock to order,” says Sigrún.

Mostly free, mostly for content

Businesses in wholesale and retail are more likely than the national average to have adopted AI through free software, and manufacturers are noticeably less likely to buy dedicated tools. Among the AI these sectors do use, text and visual content creation are the most common applications. Data processing, the type of AI behind demand forecasting, trails well behind, according to the ONS figures.

Share of all businesses

Share of AI-using businesses

Source: ONS Business Insights and Conditions Survey, Wave 159, 15 to 28 June 2026

“Off-the-shelf models have no visibility of stock positions, supplier lead times or demand history. Without that context, they can’t support a replenishment decision. And businesses need to be able to see what data an AI recommendation is based on, rather than simply being given an answer,” says Sigrún.

Businesses already know what they’re missing

Forecasting is the AI capability in highest demand among the manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers AGR works with, rated above every other option the company has asked about. The type of AI it relies on, advanced data processing and modeling, are among the least adopted in these sectors, according to the ONS figures.

“When our clients tell us what they want from AI, forecasting comes first. They want earlier warning on demand shifts, anomalies and the effect of promotions, so they can plan replenishment around it,” says Sigrún.

With six in ten of those concerned about their supply chains expecting sourcing and transport costs to rise over the next year, the gap between what these businesses want from AI and what they’ve adopted could become costly.

“These businesses want AI, and they’re under pressure on costs. But they don’t just want more AI. They want tools that understand their operational data, show them how recommendations are reached and leave them in control of the final decision. That’s very different from simply giving employees access to a general purpose AI tool,” says Sigrún.

Methodology

The sector-level figures on AI adoption, technology type, adoption method and purpose are taken from the industry breakdowns in the Office for National Statistics’ Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), Wave 159 (15 to 28 June 2026).

Supply chain cost figures are drawn from BICS Wave 163 (17 to 30 August 2026) and are shares of businesses that reported concerns about their supply chains.

BICS excludes agriculture, energy, public administration, public health and education, and financial services, so its coverage reflects the UK’s private trading economy.

Customer insights are drawn from a survey of 50 members of AGR Inventory’s customer panel, conducted in July and August 2026 among retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers. More than half of respondents were supply chain decision makers. Respondents rated six AI-enabled capabilities for their value on a scale of 1 to 5.

Contact information

Randi W. Stebbins, Head of Communication
randi@agrinventory.com
AGR

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With this new partnership, Rafay and Lenovo will initiate joint sales alignment to help companies orchestrate and monetize enterprise AI and cloud-native workloads across the Americas, EMEA and APAC 

SUNNYVALE, Calif., Oct. 20, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Rafay Systems, the infrastructure orchestration and monetization platform for enterprise AI and cloud-native workloads, today announced it has joined Lenovo AI Innovators, Lenovo’s ecosystem of AI software providers and industry solutions. Rafay and Lenovo will bring the Rafay Platform to customers deploying Lenovo AI infrastructure, and the two companies have initiated joint sales alignment across the Americas, EMEA and APAC.

AI infrastructure spend is shifting from acquiring GPU capacity to operating it as a service. With that, neoclouds, sovereign AI clouds, telcos and enterprises all face the same gap between installing GPUs and delivering a usable service to customers. Closing that gap takes multi-tenant isolation, quota enforcement, self-service portals, and usage metering, which most teams would otherwise have to build themselves. Rafay provides that orchestration and monetization layer for Lenovo infrastructure, the AI control plane Lenovo sees as critical to running hybrid AI across on-premises, hosted private AI and neocloud environments. It covers GPU and Kubernetes lifecycle management, SKU management, and AI Token Factory, which delivers models as token-metered inference APIs.

Rafay and Lenovo already share multiple customers globally, with Sharon AI – a publicly traded neocloud based in Australia that runs on Lenovo infrastructure and uses Rafay to orchestrate its AI infrastructure – being a preeminent example. The two companies are additionally prosecuting a healthy, joint pipeline of neoclouds and telecommunications companies.

“The hard part of AI infrastructure is operating GPUs as a service: shared safely across tenants, governed by policy, and metered so every GPU hour or token ties back to revenue,” said Rupen Shah, Global AI Ecosystem Partnerships at Rafay Systems. “That operating layer is what Rafay builds. Lenovo customers already rely on Lenovo for the infrastructure, and with Rafay they can run it as a hybrid AI platform, whether they are an enterprise building private AI or a neocloud selling GPU capacity and tokens.”

Lenovo reaches customers through channel partners in more than 180 markets. Learn more at lenovo.com/ai-innovators and rafay.co. 

About Rafay Systems 

Rafay Systems is a leading software provider powering the operators building the AI cloud, including neoclouds, telecommunications providers, enterprises, and sovereign AI operators. The Rafay Platform lets these organizations operationalize GPU and compute infrastructure with self-service automation, governance, and multi-tenancy, spanning bare metal provisioning, infrastructure lifecycle management, virtual machines, Kubernetes, GPU PaaS, AI development environments, and Token Factory for publishing AI models as token-metered inference services. By simplifying orchestration and operations across this stack, Rafay helps operators increase GPU utilization and turn raw infrastructure into monetizable, production-ready AI services, all while maintaining security, consistency, and control. Rafay is a validated partner in the NVIDIA AI Cloud Ready initiative. For more information, visit rafay.co.  

About Lenovo 

Lenovo is a US$83 billion revenue global technology powerhouse, ranked #153 in the Fortune Global 500, and serving millions of customers every day in 180 markets. Guided by its vision of “Smarter Technology for All”, Lenovo is executing a Hybrid AI strategy that spans Personal AI – one personal AI, multiple devices; and Enterprise AI – helping customers turn data into insights and value. This strategy is delivered through the Group’s commitment to world-class innovation and a full-stack AI portfolio, including devices (PCs, workstations, smartphones, tablets, accessories), infrastructure solutions (server, storage, edge, high performance computing and software defined infrastructure), as well as software, solutions, and services. With a global footprint spanning more than 20 research and development locations and a global supply chain that includes more than 30 manufacturing sites across 11 markets, Lenovo is widely recognized for its operational excellence. Lenovo is listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange under Lenovo Group Limited (HKSE: 992) (ADR: LNVGY). 

Media Contact

Rafay Systems
Angela Shugarts
angela@rafay.co

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The AI boom has become a powerful driver of global trade – outweighing tariffs and geopolitical shocks, according to the latest DHL Globalization TrackerThe trade outlook has improved, with growth through 2029 now forecast to outpace the previous decadeSouth and Central Asia to have the second-fastest goods-trade growth over 2026–29, behind only the Middle East & North AfricaIndia continues to strengthen its trade resiliency by developing new trade agreementsGlobalization has reached a record level of 25.8%

NEW DELHI, Oct. 20, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — The global race to build infrastructure for artificial intelligence is giving world trade strong momentum at a time of higher tariffs and geopolitical conflicts.

This is one of the key findings of the latest edition of the DHL Globalization Tracker, released by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business. Based on more than 30 million data points, the report analyzes international flows of trade, capital, information, and people. It offers the most comprehensive view of globalization available. This edition marks the report’s first publication under its new name. It was previously known as the “DHL Global Connectedness Tracker”.

AI buildout boosts global trade

The report shows that global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional Covid rebound. A major driver was strong demand for goods used to build AI infrastructure, such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment. Trade in AI-enabling goods drove 42% of goods trade growth in 2025, and this share rose to 76% during the first quarter of 2026, according to WTO and OECD analysis.

“The biggest story in global trade right now is AI – not tariffs,” said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express. “Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time. DHL connects the businesses and markets behind these complex supply chains. Whenever innovation creates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them moving.”

Global effects of Iran war and tariffs remain limited

At the same time, the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted important trade routes. But the effects remained concentrated. Economies dependent on the Strait were hit particularly hard. For example, the value of trade fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

Trade policy created a separate headwind. U.S. tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but their global impact was limited. One reason is that the U.S. accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, with roughly half of those imports exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026. Another is that most countries refrained from broad retaliation. Many instead increased efforts to secure access to alternative markets through new trade agreements.

Trade outlook upgraded despite recent shocks

Looking ahead, global goods trade is projected to expand by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029. That would be substantially faster than the 2.7% rate recorded over the previous decade.

“The surprise is not only that global trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war,” said Prof. Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management. “The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock. This reminds us to look beyond the most visible disruptions and recognize the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient. The AI trade boom highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be provided efficiently when specialized producers work together across countries. It also shows how companies continually adapt to keep trade moving through disruptions and policy shifts.”

India sits within one of the world’s strongest trade-growth regions, East Asia and the Pacific leads the way in 2026

Among all regions, East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth. The value of its trade rose 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Europe followed with 12% and Sub-Saharan Africa with 11%. South and Central Asia recorded a trade value growth of 9.6%. Looking forward, the region’s forecast remain the second-fastest for goods-trade growth over 2026–29, behind only the Middle East and North Africa.

East Asia and the Pacific not only recorded the strongest growth, but also saw a larger share of its trade stay within the region. This share increased from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026. Strong Asian supply chains serving the AI boom contributed to this increase.

India focuses on market diversification

One of the major changes in international flows is the weakening of U.S.–China ties. Yet the global impact remains surprisingly small. For example, trade between the U.S. and China accounted for 3.5% of world trade at its peak in 2015, before falling to only 1.6% during the first five months of 2026. The U.S.–China share of international business investment is even smaller – less than 1%. Meanwhile, close U.S. allies have largely maintained their relationships with China. These findings challenge the idea that U.S.–China decoupling is dividing the world economy into rival blocs.

A closer look also shows that direct trade figures understate U.S. reliance on China. Goods imported into the U.S. from other countries contain growing amounts of Chinese materials and components. When these indirect imports are also taken into account, U.S. reliance on China has declined only slightly through 2024, the latest year for which data are available.

While U.S.-China ties are weakening, India’s trade relationship with the U.S. remains strong. At the same time, trade resilience remains a focus as India continues to expand its trade relationships, developing trade agreements with the European Union, the United Kingdom, the European Free Trade Association, New Zealand, and Oman.

Globalization reaches a new record

Beyond trade and investment patterns, the report tracks the broader development of globalization based on international flows of trade, capital, information and people. It uses a scale from 0% (no cross-border flows) to 100% (borders and distance have no impact). In 2025, globalization reached a record level of 25.8%, supported in part by AI-related trade and investment.

All four flow categories contributed to the new record, reaching higher levels of internationalization. Information flows remain the most globalized, followed by capital and trade flows. People flows remain the least globalized.

The DHL Globalization Tracker

The DHL Globalization Tracker is a concise report and interactive website that provides regular updates on globalization and global trade. It complements the renowned DHL Globalization Report, published regularly since 2011. Drawn from over 25 public, private, and academic sources, the Tracker analyzes more than 30 million data points on international flows of trade, capital, information, and people.
It includes interactive online charts that make it easy for users to explore trends by region, geopolitical alignment, and for individual countries. It also supports easy data and chart downloads for offline use.

The DHL Globalization Tracker is commissioned by DHL and authored by Prof. Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of New York University Stern School of Business. It is available, together with further resources, at dhl.com/globalization.

Note: The DHL Globalization Tracker and DHL Globalization Report were formerly known as the “DHL Global Connectedness Tracker” and “DHL Global Connectedness Report”. Their new names more directly reflect the focus of the research. The scope and underlying approach remain unchanged, ensuring continuity with previous editions.

At a glance: The October 2026 edition of the DHL Globalization Tracker

What is the main finding of the report?

The global boom in artificial intelligence is giving world trade strong momentum despite higher tariffs and geopolitical conflicts. Global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional Covid rebound.

Beyond trade, the report tracks the broader development of globalization based on international flows of trade, capital, information and people. In 2025, globalization reached a record level of 25.8%. The report measures this using a scale from 0% (no cross-border flows) to 100% (borders and distance have no impact). All four types of flows contributed to the record, becoming more international.

What is the outlook for global trade?

The outlook has improved. Global goods trade is projected to grow by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029. That would be significantly faster than the 2.7% annual growth rate recorded over the previous decade. Notably, current forecasts are more optimistic than those made before both the 2025-26 U.S. tariff increases and the Iran war, suggesting that recent shocks have had a smaller impact on the global economy than many expected.

How have tariffs and geopolitical conflicts affected global trade?

Tariffs and geopolitical conflicts continue to create risks and disruptions. But their overall impact on global trade has been limited. While the Iran war affected important shipping routes and hit economies dependent on the Strait of Hormuz particularly hard, the effects remained largely concentrated. U.S. tariffs rose to their highest levels in decades, but the United States accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, and roughly half of U.S. imports were exempt from tariff increases as of August 2026. Many countries also avoided broad retaliation and instead expanded trade links with alternative markets. As a result, global trade continued to grow.

Where is trade growing fastest?

East Asia and the Pacific saw the strongest trade growth among all regions. The value of its trade rose 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Europe followed with 12% and Sub-Saharan Africa with 11%.

East Asia and the Pacific not only recorded the strongest growth, but also saw a larger share of its trade stay within the region. This share increased from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026. Strong Asian supply chains serving the AI boom contributed to this increase.

Is U.S.–China decoupling splitting the world into rival blocs?

No, not so far. The United States and China have significantly reduced their ties with each other over the past decade. But this has not led to a broader split in the global economy. Close U.S. allies have largely maintained their economic relationships with China. Another reason is that direct U.S.–China ties account for a surprisingly small share of the global economy. For example, trade between the two countries represented 3.5% of world goods trade at its peak in 2015, before falling to 1.6% in the first five months of 2026. The U.S.–China share of international business investment is even smaller – less than 1%.

Has the United States become less dependent on China?

Direct trade between the two countries has declined sharply, but the picture is more complex when supply chains are taken into account. Goods imported into the United States from third countries increasingly contain Chinese materials and components. When these indirect imports are considered, U.S. reliance on China declined only slightly through 2024.

Should companies redesign their supply chains to improve resilience?

For business leaders, the report recommends preparing for disruptions without giving up the advantages of international engagement. While specific economies, industries or trade routes can still face significant risks, overall global flows remain strong. Decisions such as relocating production should therefore balance supply-chain resilience with the benefits of global reach and market access. Companies that pull back from international markets while competitors remain globally active may risk weakening their competitive position.

– End –

The report and further resources are available at dhl.com/globalization.

DHL Group is the world’s leading logistics company. The Group connects people and markets and is an enabler of global trade. It aspires to be the first choice for customers, employees, investors and green logistics worldwide. To this end, DHL Group is focusing on accelerating sustainable growth in its profitable core logistics businesses and Group growth initiatives. The Group contributes to the world through sustainable business practices, corporate citizenship, and environmental activities. By the year 2050, DHL Group aims to achieve net-zero emissions logistics.

DHL Group is home to two strong brands: DHL offers a comprehensive range of parcel, express, freight transport, and supply chain management services as well as e-commerce logistics solutions. Deutsche Post is the largest postal service provider in Europe and the market leader in the German mail market. DHL Group employs approximately 584,000 people in over 220 countries and territories worldwide. The Group generated revenues of approximately 82.9 billion Euros in 2025.

The logistics company for the world.

New York University Stern School of Business, located in the heart of Greenwich Village and deeply connected to the city after which it is named, is one of the United States’ premier management education schools and research centers. NYU Stern offers a broad portfolio of transformational programs at graduate, undergraduate, and executive levels, all of them enriched by the dynamism and deep resources of one of the world’s business capitals. NYU Stern is a welcoming community that inspires its members to embrace and lead change in a rapidly transforming world. Visit www.stern.nyu.edu.

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