Dogecoin (DOGE) price has crashed by over 70% after hitting $0.48 in December 2024. Interestingly, the memecoin’s richest holders have accumulated during the price declines, indicating their confidence in a potential rebound in the coming weeks.

Dogecoin onchain metrics hint at price rebound

Onchain data from Santiment shows that wallets holding at least 1 million DOGE have increased by 1.24% since early February, despite declining prices. Meanwhile, active addresses have surged to a four-month high, suggesting rising network activity.

Dogecoin addresses holding at least a million DOGE vs. price. Source: Santiment

Typically, when large holders accumulate an asset while prices decline, it signals that they see undervaluation and are positioning for a future rebound.

An increase in active addresses indicates higher engagement on the network—possibly reflecting growing retail interest.

If this surge in user activity stems from real adoption rather than speculative trading or panic selling, it could provide the onchain foundation needed for a price recovery. A similar pattern was observed during the DOGE’s 200%-plus price rally in November.

DOGE is oversold, raising chances of 30% rally

Dogecoin is currently testing a support confluence comprising a multi-year ascending trendline support, a level that has historically triggered strong bullish reversals and the 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA) at around $0.13.

DOGE/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Additionally, the Stochastic RSI, an indicator measuring momentum and overbought/oversold conditions, shows a bullish cross in the oversold region (below the 0.30 reading).

This signal typically indicates that selling pressure is weakening. In DOGE’s case, this crossover at low levels has preceded strong price recoveries, notably a 400% price rally in 2024 and 88% gains in 2023.

Related: Crypto market is seeing a ‘tactical retreat, not a reversal’ — Binance CEO

The first major resistance level lies near $0.22, aligning with DOGE’s 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) and the March-April 2024 resistance area, as shown below.

DOGE/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

However, if DOGE fails to hold the support confluence, the bullish setup could be invalidated, leading to a deeper correction toward $0.12, which served as support in the March-May 2024 period.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.