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Investors flee from risk assets as JPMorgan ups recession odds to 40%

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Crypto and tech stocks saw large selloffs on March 10 as fears of a US recession heightened despite efforts from the White House to temper concerns. 

Economists at Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan have raised their recession risk this year to 40%, up from 30% at the beginning of 2025. “We see a material risk that the US falls into recession this year owing to extreme US policies,” wrote the analysts, according to The Wall Street Journal. 

Analysts at Goldman Sachs economists also raised their 12-month recession probability to 20%, up from 15%. They said that the forecast could rise further if the Trump administration remains “committed to its policies even in the face of much worse data.” 

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley economists lowered their economic growth forecasts last week and raised inflation expectations. The bank predicted a GDP growth of just 1.5% in 2025, falling to 1.2% in 2026. 

It comes despite a key economic adviser to US President Donald Trump pushed back against talks of a recession. Speaking to CNBC on March 10, Kevin Hassett, who heads the National Economic Council, said there were many reasons to be optimistic about the US economy. 

“There are a lot of reasons to be extremely bullish about the economy going forward. But for sure, this quarter, there are some blips in the data,” he said. 

Meanwhile, in an interview with Fox News on March 9, Donald Trump responded to a question about the possibility of a recession by saying the US economy was going through “a period of transition.”

Blockchain betting platform Polymarket quipped that recession odds are “the best looking chart in finance right now.”

Source: Polymarket

Tech stock and crypto sell-off

The so-called “Trump bump” has dissipated, with the S&P 500 now lower than it was before his Nov. 5 US election victory. 

The index has lost almost 10% from last month’s high, and the Nasdaq is already in a correction, having lost 14% in just three weeks.

The Nasdaq has lost almost 10% this year. Source: Google Finance 

All US stock markets ended March 10 in the red, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.7% to its lowest level since September, the tech-heavy Nasdaq having its worst day since 2022 in a 4% fall, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 900 points or roughly 2.1%.

The Magnificent 7 — America’s top tech firms — have had a tumultuous start to the week, collectively shedding more than $750 billion in market cap in one day. Tesla tanked a whopping 15%, becoming the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year.

AI giant Nvidia lost 5.1%, Apple shed 4.9%, Meta fell 4.4% and Alphabet lost 4.5% on the day. 

Related: Biggest red weekly candle ever: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Meanwhile, crypto markets have plunged to their lowest point since early November, with a 7.5% fall in total market capitalization to $2.6 trillion on March 11, with around $240 billion exiting the space. 

Crypto market cap declines 1 month. Source: CoinMarketCap

Bitcoin (BTC) has also fallen through previous levels of support, dropping 4% on the day and hitting $76,784 before a minor recovery took the asset back to $79,000 at the time of writing. 

Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest

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Coin Market

BFI charity allocates $90M, pledges $200M for health, climate initiatives

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Blockchain For Impact (BFI), a charity established by Polygon co-founder Sandeep Nailwal, has committed $90 million to advance biomedical research, driving healthcare innovation, and enhancing climate resilience — a development that could spur blockchain’s adoption for charity initiatives.

The Polygon co-founder’s BFI plans to allocate an additional $200 million to support the growth of healthcare startups, expand biomedical research, and strengthen the public health systems.

BFI has backed several impactful projects in India’s healthcare sector, including Solar-Powered Public Health Centers (PHCs), a floating hospital in Assam to aid communities in flood-prone areas, the UNICEF Healthcare Innovation Partnership, and relief funding during the COVID-19 crisis. Their further initiatives will place a greater emphasis on healthcare innovation and research.

Incorporating blockchain technology can make philanthropic efforts more transparent and accountable thanks to the ledger’s verifiability, according to Sandeep Nailwal, Founder of Blockchain for Impact and co-founder of Polygon.

Nailwal told Cointelegraph:

“All donations received by BFI can be tracked through blockchain. While the final transfer to non-profit programs happens through a bank, every financial step is transparently displayed on our website. All financial data can be visualized, and we publish NGO details, allowing anyone to independently verify the disbursements.”

“Separately, the $68 million we channeled for COVID-19 relief in India, including $15 million to the Government of India through UNICEF for 128 million syringes during COVID-19, followed the same approach,” said Nailwal, adding:

“Anyone, be it donors or communities, can see where the money goes. This shows up in the results: 96% of healthcare workers say care has improved, and vaccine wastage dropped 83% because refrigeration is steady.”

Source: The Given Block Annual Report

According to The Giving Block’s report, BFI exemplifies the rapid growth of crypto philanthropy, with its $90 million in donations representing 9% of all cryptocurrency contributions tracked globally in 2024.

This surge aligns with the transformative potential of digital donations to enhance transparency and efficiency in fund allocation. The same report reveals that over 70% of the top 100 US-based charities now accept crypto.

Related: Crypto giving exceeded $1B in 2024 — Report

Global charities are embracing crypto donations

Charitable organizations are increasingly embracing cryptocurrency donations, thanks to the transparency of the blockchain ledger, which makes donations publicly traceable and reduces the transaction fees of charitable transactions compared to fiat-based donations.

Beyond just the US, charities across the globe embrace crypto donations, including large charities like the UK Red Cross and Singapore Red Cross. Save the Children, a leading international nonprofit organization, disclosed that they had received $8.6 million in crypto donations so far.

Source: Save The Children Website

As cryptocurrency adoption grows, so does the need for secure and compliant solutions for nonprofits. The Given Block announced its partnership with Gemini on March 13. The organization thinks artificial intelligence can help make crypto in philanthropy more secure.

Crypto donations have the potential to enhance charitable revenue. A report from Fast Company found that nonprofits with a strong track record of transparency experienced a 53% increase in contributions on average the following year compared to organizations lacking such transparency. As donation transparency improves, donor willingness to contribute also increases.

As the crypto market continues to grow, crypto donations are expected to be increasingly accepted by more organizations. The Giving Block estimates crypto donations in 2035 would be approximately $89.27 billion.

Additional reporting by Zoltan Vardai.

Magazine: Crypto is changing how humanitarian agencies deliver aid and services

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Solana stablecoin positioning threatens ‘extreme’ SOL volatility

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Investors’ stablecoin positioning on the Solana network and a key technical chart pattern threaten more volatility for the Solana token, which may see a decisive moment for its price action.

Solana’s transport layer saw “extreme” volatility in trading the Tether’s USDt (USDT) stablecoin, which may indicate that traders are repositioning in search of new investment opportunities.

USDT trading on Solana’s transport layer saw an over 137% surge during the last week of February, after seeing a 61% plunge during the previous week, according to a report by global payments infrastructure platform Mercuryo, shared with Cointelegraph.

The stablecoin trading spikes show an unparalleled level of trading activity that may signal more volatility for the Solana (SOL) token, according to Petr Kozyakov, co-founder and CEO of Mercuryo.

The “frenetic activity” may “indicate that the chain is prone to be more volatile,” the CEO told Cointelegraph, adding:

“However, Solana’s inherent strengths – fast transaction processing, high scalability, and an active trading ecosystem – may also be factors. This is against a backdrop of an ecosystem attracting at times high trading volumes.”

“Notably, DEX’s on Solana, such as Jupiter and Raydium, have ignited significant interest,” he added.

Related: Crypto market’s biggest risks in 2025: US recession, circular crypto economy

Meanwhile, a key emerging technical chart pattern may be decisive for Solana’s price action in the near term.

Source: Trader Tardigrade

“Solana Heikin Ashi hourly chart shows a Converging Triangle. Both bullish or bearish moves are possible,” wrote pseudonymous crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade in a March 19 X post.

Related: Bitcoin beats global assets post-Trump election, despite BTC correction

Memecoins, FTX repayments may be limiting SOL price

While some analysts suggest that the current memecoin frenzy has been siphoning liquidity from the Solana token, multiple other factors are influencing SOL’s price action.

Notably, the incoming repayments from bankrupt FTX exchange may limit Solana’s price action, explained Kozyakov, adding:

“The defunct FTX exchange has set up a repayment plan that involves distributing a large amount of SOL tokens to creditors, which can potentially result in selling pressure.”

FTX and Alameda Research-linked wallets unstaked $431 million of SOL tokens on March 4, marking the biggest SOL token unlock since November 2023, Cointelegraph reported.

Although FTX and Alameda unlocked more than $400 million in SOL, the firms may not be able to sell all the tokens in a single transaction. In September 2023, the Delaware Bankruptcy Court approved FTX’s plan to sell digital assets, imposing strict limits on liquidation amounts.

Under the court ruling, the bankrupt exchange can sell digital assets weekly through an investment adviser, with an initial limit of $50 million in the first week and $100 million in subsequent weeks. If FTX seeks to sell more, it must request court approval to raise the limit to $200 million per week.

FTX’s next round of repayments will take place on May 30. Under FTX’s recovery plan, 98% of creditors are expected to receive at least 118% of their claim value in cash. In May 2024, the exchange estimated the distribution’s total value to range between $14.5 billion and $16.3 billion.

Magazine: ETH may bottom at $1.6K, SEC delays multiple crypto ETFs, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 9 – 15

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AI and crypto drive criminal efficiency: Europol

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The European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation (Europol) published a report explaining how artificial intelligence and crypto affected organized crime. 

In a threat assessment report on serious and organized crime, Europol stated that AI and crypto play a role in criminal efficiency. The law enforcement organization said criminal networks have demonstrated an ability to rapidly adapt to new technology. 

The report said AI’s transformative qualities make it an attractive tool for criminals. The report said that generative AI had “lowered the barriers to entry” for digital crimes. 

The government agency said AI lets criminals craft messages in multiple languages, targeting victims more precisely and globally. It also allowed malicious actors to create malware and child sexual abuse material. 

How AI and crypto drive criminal efficiency

Europol also stated that AI’s automation capabilities have been transforming the efficiency of criminal operations. The government agency said criminals can automate their phishing campaigns using AI. Because of this, malicious actors can reach more victims with large-scale cyberattacks. 

Europol said in the report that realistic synthetic media allows criminals to deceive victims, impersonate individuals and blackmail their targets. The organization wrote: 

“The addition of AI-powered voice cloning and live video deepfakes amplifies the threat, enabling new forms of fraud, extortion, and identity theft.”

On Feb. 13, Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis said that generative AI is “amplifying scams.” The analytics company said AI is making scams more affordable and more scalable. Chainalysis’ head of fraud products, Elad Fouk, said AI facilitates the creation of fake identities, allowing fraudsters to impersonate real users.

Apart from AI, the report also noted how blockchain-based technologies like cryptocurrency and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have moved beyond cybercrime and are now involved in other traditional crime areas. This includes drug trafficking and migrant smuggling. 

Europol also said that more criminal schemes have emerged to steal crypto, NFTs and resources used to mine crypto. 

Related: Hacker breaks into AI crypto bot aixbt’s dashboard to snatch 55 ETH

ZachXBT says the Bybit hack shows how the industry is “cooked” 

The most recent high-profile criminal activity in the crypto space is the Bybit hack, which led to nearly $1.5 billion in losses. In a Telegram post, crypto investigator ZachXBT said the hack has been “eye-opening,” showing how the industry is “unbelievably cooked” with hacks and exploits. 

The crypto sleuth said the industry may be unable to fix itself unless the government “forcibly passes regulations that hurt our entire industry.” The investigator shared that as he helped freeze funds related to the hack, he witnessed flaws with decentralized and centralized protocols. ZachXBT wrote: 

“Several ‘decentralized’ protocols have recently had nearly 100% of their monthly volume/fees derived from DPRK and refuse to take any accountability.”

The crypto investigator said North Korean hackers laundering the funds have demonstrated the flaws of Know Your Transaction and Know Your Customer protocols. 

“Centralized exchanges end up being worse as when illicit funds flow through them a few take multiple hours to respond when it only takes minutes to launder,” ZachXBT said.

Magazine: Classic Sega, Atari and Nintendo games get crypto makeovers: Web3 Gamer

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