Connect with us

Coin Market

Crypto regulation shifts as Bitcoin eyes $105K amid liquidity boost

Published

on

Bitcoin (BTC) price has risen 8% from its March 11 low of $76,703, driven in part by large investors aggressively buying the dip with leverage.

Margin longs on Bitfinex surged to their highest level since November 2024, adding 13,787 BTC over 17 days. Currently standing at $5.7 billion, this bullish leveraged positioning signals confidence in Bitcoin’s upside potential despite recent price weakness.

Bitcoin/USD (orange, left) vs. Bitfinex BTC margin longs (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Some analysts argue that Bitcoin’s price is closely linked to the global monetary base, meaning it tends to rise as central banks inject liquidity.

With recession risks mounting, the likelihood of expansionary monetary policies increasing the money supply grows. If this correlation holds, Bitfinex whales could be well-positioned to capitalize on a rally above $105,000 in the next two months.

Source: pakpakchicken

For instance, X user Pakpakchicken claims to have identified an 82% correlation between the global money supply (M2) and Bitcoin’s price.

When central banks drain liquidity by raising interest rates or reducing bond holdings, traders become more risk-averse, leading to weaker demand for Bitcoin. Conversely, periods of monetary easing tend to fuel greater investor interest in the asset, increasing its price potential.

Bitfinex whales go long BTC as M2 bottoms

In early September 2024, Bitfinex margin traders added 7,840 BTC in long positions, coinciding with a period of bearish momentum as Bitcoin struggled to reclaim the $50,000 level for over three months.

Despite the downturn, Bitfinex whales held their positions, and Bitcoin’s price surged past $75,000 less than two months later. Notably, the global M2 money supply bottomed out around the same time these traders increased their Bitcoin exposure, further reinforcing the correlation.

It may be impossible to establish a direct cause-and-effect relationship between money supply and investors’ willingness to accumulate Bitcoin, especially given the influence of major events during these periods.

For example, Donald Trump’s election as US president in November 2024 significantly fueled Bitcoin’s rally due to the new administration’s pro-crypto stance, regardless of global M2 trends and liquidity conditions.

Spot Bitcoin ETF net flows, USD. Source: CoinGlass

Similarly, Michael Saylor’s latest plan to raise up to $21 billion in fresh capital for Strategy to acquire more Bitcoin could shift market dynamics, even accounting for the $4.1 billion in net outflows from Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since Feb. 24.

Strategy remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, with 499,096 BTC acquired at a total cost of $33.1 billion, reinforcing its long-term bullish strategy.

Clearer crypto regulation, Strategy capital increase

In essence, the expansion of the global money supply may have influenced the increase in Bitfinex margin longs, but Bitcoin’s push toward $105,000 could be primarily driven by industry-specific news and events.

A Wall Street Journal report on March 13 revealed that representatives of Donald Trump have held discussions about potentially acquiring a stake in Binance.

Related: US Bitcoin ETFs break outflow streak with $13.3M inflow

So far, the market impact of a more crypto-friendly US government has yet to yield concrete benefits.

For example, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has not yet clarified whether banks can custody digital assets and manage stablecoins without prior approval.

Similarly, Acting SEC Chairman Mark Uyeda announced plans to remove crypto-specific provisions from a proposed rule that would expand exchange definitions.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission is currently reviewing requests from spot Bitcoin ETF issuers to permit in-kind creations and redemptions, allowing shares to be exchanged directly for Bitcoin instead of using the traditional cash-based method.

Meanwhile, global macroeconomic conditions have deteriorated, putting pressure on Bitcoin’s price. However, these same factors gradually push governments toward economic stimulus measures and expand the M2 money supply.

If this trend continues, it should ultimately create conditions for Bitcoin’s price to meet Pakpakchicken’s $105,000 prediction by May 2025 and possibly go even higher.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Coin Market

Crypto Biz: As crypto booms, recession looms

Published

on

By

America’s pro-crypto policy shift has become a bipartisan commitment as Democrats and Republicans look to secure the US dollar’s influence as a global reserve currency. According to US Representative and California Democrat Ro Khanna, at least 70 of his fellow party members now understand the importance of stablecoin regulation. 

According to Khanna, Americans can expect sensible crypto market structure and stablecoin bills this year. Under normal circumstances, this news would send crypto prices soaring, but that’s not been the case as President Donald Trump’s trade policies stoke recession fears.

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood is the latest crypto industry executive to sound the recession alarm. While a recession is rarely a good thing, Wood said it could provide Trump and the Federal Reserve with leeway to enact pro-growth policies. 

“We are worried about a recession” — Cathie Wood

Although US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent isn’t worried about a recession, Wood is certainly preparing for that possibility. 

Speaking virtually at the Digital Asset Summit in New York, Wood implied that the White House could be underestimating the recession risk facing the economy as a result of Trump’s latest tariff war. 

“We are worried about a recession,” Wood said. “We think the velocity of money is slowing down dramatically.”

A slowdown in the velocity of money means capital is changing hands less frequently as consumers and businesses reduce spending. Such conditions usually signify the onset of a recession.

However, recessionary forces could end up being a boon for risk assets like crypto as declining GDP should give “the president and the Fed many more degrees of freedom to do what they want in terms of tax cuts and monetary policy,” said Wood.

Cathie Wood tells the Digital Asset Summit that the threat of recession is building. Source: Cointelegraph

US stablecoin bill is “imminent” — Bo Hines

The US could have comprehensive stablecoin legislation in as little as two months, according to Bo Hines, the recently appointed executive director of Trump’s Presidential Council of Advisers on Digital Assets.

Speaking at the Digital Asset Summit in New York, Hines lauded the Senate Banking Committee’s bipartisan approval of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, also known as the GENIUS Act.

“We saw that vote come out of the Senate Banking Committee in extremely bipartisan fashion, […] which was fantastic to see,” Hines said.

The GENIUS Act seeks to establish clear guidelines for US stablecoin issuers, including collateralization requirements and compliance rules with Anti-Money Laundering laws. 

“I think our colleagues on the other side of the aisle also recognize the importance for US dominance in this space, and they’re willing to work with us here, and that’s what’s really exciting about this,” said Hines.

Bo Hines says US stablecoin legislation could arrive on President Donald Trump’s desk in two months. Source: Cointelegraph

Ethena Labs, Securitize launch DeFi-focused blockchain

Ethena Labs and Securitize are launching a new blockchain designed to boost retail and institutional adoption of DeFi products and tokenized assets.

The new blockchain, called Converge, is an Ethereum Virtual Machine that will offer retail investors access to “standard DeFi applications” and specialize in institutional-grade offerings to bridge traditional finance and decentralized applications. Converge will also allow users to stake Ethena’s native governance token, ENA. 

Converge will also leverage Securitize’s RWA infrastructure. The company has minted nearly $2 billion in tokenized RWAs across various blockchains, including the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund, which was initially launched on Ethereum and has since expanded to Aptos, Arbitrum, Avalanche, Optimism and Polygon.

Canary Capital files for Sui ETF

Canary Capital has submitted its Form S-1 filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list an exchange-traded fund tied to Sui (SUI), the native token of the layer-1 blockchain used for staking and fees.

The March 17 filing underscores the race to expand institutional access to digital assets following the overwhelming success of the spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs last year. Canary Capital has so far filed six crypto ETF proposals with the SEC.

Sui is the 22nd largest crypto asset by market capitalization, with a total value of $7.5 billion, according to CoinGecko. The Sui blockchain recently partnered with World Liberty Financial, the DeFi company backed by Trump’s family.

Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse on the business behind blockchain and crypto, delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.

Continue Reading

Coin Market

Crypto super PAC network to back GOP House candidates in Florida

Published

on

By

A Super PAC network funded by the crypto industry is poised to back two Republican candidates for the United States House of Representatives in Florida’s April 1 special elections, according to a March 21 report by Politico. The network includes Fairshake, Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress.

Defend American Jobs will start the spending by airing a $1.2 million ad for Florida State Senator Randy Fine, who aims to replace former representative Michael Waltz, who resigned his House seat to become US President Donald Trump’s national security adviser. “Floridians want crypto innovation!” Fine posted on X on Jan. 14, while also highlighting the need for “clear rules of the road.”

Defend American Jobs is also spending $345,000 to support Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis in his quest to replace former representative Matt Gaetz. Gaetz resigned his House seat after Trump nominated him to become US attorney general, for which he later withdrew his name from consideration.

As Florida’s chief financial officer, Patronis wrote a letter to the State Board of Administration requesting a report on the feasibility of devoting part of the state’s retirement monies to investing in digital assets.

Overall, there are four vacancies in the US House of Representatives, with two of the vacancies in Florida. If the Democrats were to sweep all four spots, the result would be just a one-person advantage for the GOP in the House, a very slim margin.

Related: Crypto firms double down on influencing US elections via PACs in 2026

Defend American Jobs backed Fine and Patronis in primaries

As Cointelegraph reported in January, crypto-funded Defend American Jobs backed Fine and Patronis during the primaries to select the nominees in the special elections.

According to filings with the Federal Election Commission, Defend American Jobs spent more than $500,000 supporting Fine and $200,000 backing Patronis. The two candidates won their primaries in the state’s 6th and 1st congressional districts, respectively.

Defend American Jobs expenditure report supporting Randy Fine. Source: FEC

While Fairshake gets much of the attention in the crypto PAC world, Defend American Jobs also spends millions of dollars supporting crypto candidates. According to OpenSecrets, the PAC raised and spent around $60 million from 2023 to 2024. The PAC’s location is listed as Alexandria, VA and it focuses on securities and investments, specifically crypto.

Unlike Fairshake, which has a tendency to support candidates from different political parties, Defend American Jobs spends almost entirely in support of Republicans, with no spending support listed for candidates belonging to the Democratic Party, according to OpenSecrets.

Magazine: Crypto exposes sudden rift among Democrats months ahead of election

Continue Reading

Coin Market

John Reed Stark opposes regulatory reform at SEC crypto roundtable

Published

on

By

John Reed Stark, the former director of the Office of Internet Enforcement at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), pushed back against the idea of regulatory reform at the first SEC crypto roundtable.

The former regulator said the Securities Act of 1933 and 1934 should not be changed to accommodate digital assets and urged that digital assets do not escape the definition of securities under the current laws.

The first-ever SEC crypto roundtable. Source: SEC

“The people buying crypto are not collectors. We all know that they are investors, and the mission of the SEC is to protect investors,” Stark said. The former official added:

“The volume of case law has developed so quickly because of all these crypto firms. They went for this sort of delay, delay, delay, idea, and they hired the best law firms in the world, and these law firms all fought the SEC with incredible briefs.”

“I have read every single one of them. And they lost just about, I would argue, every single time,” he continued.

Stark concluded that he saw no innovation in digital assets or cryptocurrencies compared to previous online revolutions, such as the debut of the iPhone.

John Reed Stark, pictured on the far right, arguing against comprehensive regulatory reform. Source: SEC

Related: SEC’s deadline extension is a ‘fork’ in case against Coinbase — John Reed Stark

John Reed Stark: one of crypto’s staunchest critics

Stark has been one of the most vocal opponents of cryptocurrencies and the digital asset industry, often criticizing the industry for a lack of transparency and accountability.

In February 2024, the former SEC official characterized a sponsorship deal between the Dallas Mavericks — a National Basketball Association (NBA) team — and crypto firm Voyager as an agreement with a “heroin manufacturing firm.”

Stark later said that the government agency’s regulation by enforcement under former chairman Gary Gensler was warranted and added that cryptocurrency must conform to existing laws rather than the law evolving to embrace the future of money.

Stark’s anti-crypto stance has been criticized by industry executives and investors as unhinged. In June 2023, notable investor Mark Cuban called out Reed’s views as “crypto derangement syndrome.”

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

Continue Reading

Trending