Institutional crypto investment firm Bitwise has doubled down on its big Bitcoin price prediction for this year despite escalating global trade tensions.

“In December, Bitwise predicted that Bitcoin would end the year at $200,000. I still think that’s in play,” Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said in an April 9 blog post. 

He suggested that the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s global tariff push could be beneficial for Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto because his administration “wants a weaker dollar, even if it means ending its role as the world’s reserve currency.”

Hougan cited an April 7 speech by Steve Miran, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, which criticized the dollar’s reserve status as causing “persistent currency distortions” and “unsustainable trade deficits” that have “decimated” US manufacturing.

Hougan said a weaker greenback could have both short-term and long-term implications for Bitcoin. 

In the short term, dollar weakness historically correlates with Bitcoin strength, he added, citing the US Dollar Index (DXY). 

“Dollar down equals Bitcoin up,” Hougan said. “I expect this pattern will continue.”

BTC prices have generally been historically high when DXY has been historically low. Source: MacroMicro 

The DXY, which compares the value of the US dollar to a basket of six major currencies, has fallen more than 7% since the beginning of 2025, according to TradingView. 

In the long term, Hougan said disruption to the global reserve currency system creates opportunities for alternative reserve assets, including Bitcoin and gold. 

“Governments and companies turn to the dollar for international trade precisely because of its stability. When that stability comes into question, they have to look elsewhere.”

The Bitwise executive concluded that the world will move from a single reserve currency to a “more fractured reserve system, with hard money like Bitcoin and gold playing a bigger role than it does today.”

Earlier this week, VanEck said that China and Russia were reportedly settling some energy trades in Bitcoin as Trump’s trade war ramps up.

On April 9, Trump issued a 90-day pause on nearly all of his earlier announced “reciprocal tariffs,” keeping a baseline 10% tariff on all countries besides China, which he lumped with a 125% tariff.

Bitcoin will be the fastest horse 

Crypto trader and analyst Will Clemente said on X that “Bitcoin will be the fastest horse” coming out of this drawdown. 

Related: Most opportune time to buy Bitcoin? Now — Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan explains why

“It’s a pure reflection of liquidity and no earnings, if anything, economic uncertainty/deglobalization are positive for Bitcoin,” he added. 

BTC is up 7.5% over the past 24 hours to $81,700. It has seen a correction of around 32% from its Jan. 20 all-time high, in line with pullbacks in previous bull market cycles.

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