Temperature departures 3 degrees or higher above the historical average are expected across parts of 14 states this summerThe demand for home, business and data center cooling is expected to be above the historical average across 33 statesImpacts from our warming atmosphere are contributing to hotter days, warmer nights and more intense droughts across much of the western and central U.S.Click here to request an interview with an AccuWeather Expert MeteorologistClick here to watch the video media briefing with AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul PastelokClick here to download video soundbites and forecast graphics cleared for media use
STATE COLLEGE, Pa., April 30, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — AccuWeather long-range expert meteorologists say families and businesses across much of the country should prepare for higher electricity bills this summer, with overall temperatures above historical averages expected across 45 states.
Meteorological summer starts on June 1 and runs through the end of August. AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok says the three-month span will feature sweltering heat, severe weather, intense wildfires and the start of a dynamic Atlantic hurricane season.
“Make sure your air conditioners are ready for another hot summer across much of the country, especially the western and central U.S. We expect a summer with more extremes, including extreme heat waves, expanding drought and the potential for big wildfires and major hurricanes later in the summer,” Pastelok said. “The only area we expect normal to below-historical-average temperatures this summer is across parts of the interior Northeast, interior mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley. Don’t be fooled, we’ll still have some hot and humid stretches in this region from time to time.”
What’s driving the heat?
Many towns and cities across America have already had a taste of summer warmth this spring. AccuWeather expert meteorologists say Phoenix reached the 100-degree mark on April 10, the earliest the mercury has hit the century mark in the past seven years.
Overall temperatures from June through August are forecast to be above the historical average across most of the nation, with the more intense heat expected in the northern Rockies, the Northwest and across the Plains.
“Temperature departures are forecast to be well above average across the northern Rockies and the interior Northwest. High pressure will be in control for most of the summer season,” Pastelok said. “The monsoon will help to lower departures in the Southwest, especially mid- to late summer.”
Pastelok said the demand for electricity is expected to climb above historical average levels across parts of 33 states this summer to power millions of air conditioners, fans and other cooling equipment inside homes, businesses, warehouses and massive data centers.
“Soil moisture and drought are big factors contributing to the demand for cooling this summer. We expect the middle of the country to dry out and bake in the summer heat. Higher air temperatures can enhance evaporation rates, which further reduces soil moisture. The hotter and drier it gets, the more families and businesses will depend on air conditioning,” Pastelok explained.
“Air conditioning is no longer just a luxury across much of the western and central U.S.; it’s a necessity in homes, schools and businesses for people to stay safe. Power outages in triple-digit heat can quickly lead to a life-threatening situation. Extreme heat is the deadliest weather hazard in the U.S.”
The AccuWeather team of long-range experts says strong to extreme heat waves are possible at times this summer, especially in the western, central and northwestern U.S.
“Intense heat is likely this summer in the northern Rockies, the High Plains and the interior Northwest. Seattle and Portland could experience some hot stretches, but places like Spokane, Boise and Billings will likely see the most intense scorching heat this summer,” Pastelok said.
In the Northeast and across the Appalachians, the summer will be full of ups and downs as heat waves are broken by showers and thunderstorms. The tradeoff will be higher humidity, which can ultimately boost AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures, especially when the sun is shining.
Plentiful soil moisture from spring rainfall will help keep summer temperatures in the average range across parts of the interior Northeast, interior mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley.
“The moist and saturated soil will prevent drought conditions from developing this summer and help hold down daytime high temperatures,” Pastelok said. “The evening and overnight hours will be warm and muggy across this region, so air conditioning will be needed during the hottest weeks of summer.”
AccuWeather long-range experts predict fewer 90-degree days in New York City, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and Atlanta this summer than last year.
The frequency of 90-degree days is expected to be in the same range as last summer farther west in cities including Minneapolis, Dallas, Denver, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Portland.
Resources to help you plan and prepare for summer heat are available for free on the AccuWeather app and AccuWeather.com, including AccuWeather RealFeel™ temperatures, which consider not just temperature and humidity, but also sun angle, sun intensity, cloud cover, wind and other factors to determine how it actually feels outside in the sunshine and in the shade.
The AccuWeather AccuLumen Brightness Index™ offers a more descriptive and better way of characterizing the brightness of the day measured on a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 is a gray, dark, dismal day and a 10 is a very bright day with blue sunny skies, no clouds, no pollution and a high level of glare at sunrise and sunset.
The AccuWeather HeatWave Counter and Severity Index™ is also available in key cities across the U.S. to quantify heat waves by duration and intensity compared to past heat waves of the year and historically.
Storms and monsoon to provide some relief from hot weather
Areas of the eastern U.S. that avoid the worst of the heat may face an uptick in showers and thunderstorms, including the risk of severe weather.
“Water in the Gulf is very warm and can fuel intense, severe weather events into summer,” Pastelok explained. “Storms could be more frequent in June and July than in August, including the potential for intense groups of thunderstorms known as derechos.”
A derecho can unleash extreme winds over a large area, with the ability to level fields of corn, snap trees like twigs and cause widespread power outages that last over a week. The zone that faces the highest risk of derechos this summer includes the northern Plains, the Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley.
Later in the summer, tropical storms and hurricanes that make landfall in the U.S. can contribute to tornado activity.
The North American monsoon is also forecast to ramp up in late June across the interior West and produce above-normal rainfall.
“The monsoon may help ease drought conditions,” Pastelok said. “Another positive to an above-average monsoon is to bring up river and lake levels. This can also bring relief from high heat and some energy savings.”
The tradeoff will be the risk of flash flooding and mudslides when the worst of the monsoon-fueled thunderstorms strike.
The peak of lightning activity in the U.S. occurs during the summer, which increases the risk of sparking wildfires.
People should remain vigilant when outdoors any time thunderstorms are in the forecast, as June, July and August account for the highest number of lightning-related fatalities. Every thunderstorm poses a risk of lightning, and it only takes one strike to abruptly end a day at the beach, on the golf course or hiking in the mountains.
The AccuWeather Lightning Network™ uses sensors across the U.S. to issue AccuWeather Lightning Alerts through the AccuWeather app when lightning strikes within 10 miles of their location. AccuWeather Lightning Alerts are available for free to all AccuWeather app users in the U.S.
Expanding drought will raise the risk of wildfires
AccuWeather long-range experts say many of the same areas that experience some of the hottest weather compared to the historical average this summer will also face worsening drought, which will cause the wildfire season to escalate quickly.
“Drought coverage will be widespread across the High Plains and West this summer,” Pastelok said. “Drought can have a big impact on the growing season in this region, including spring wheat, corn and soybeans.”
The drought risk this summer is the opposite of last summer across the Midwest and northern Plains, where rainfall was more frequent throughout the summer.
“Water shortages could be possible in some of the areas hit hardest by extreme heat and drought this summer,” Pastelok warned.
While the monsoon can provide much-needed moisture and help combat wildfires, the associated thunderstorms will also bring lightning strikes, which can ignite new blazes. There is a higher risk of these fire-starting thunderstorms at the onset of the monsoon when the landscape is at its driest.
The AccuWeather 2025 U.S. Wildfire Forecast warns of “very high” to “extreme” fire risk at times across parts of the Southwest, Texas, Rockies and interior Northwest.
“We expect a later start for wildfire activity in the Northwest this summer, but once it starts, fires could quickly explode in size. There is a lot of vegetation, dead trees and other fuels that will dry out across the region this summer. That can act like kindling for fires,” Pastelok explained. “The fire risk is earlier in the season for the Southwest. We’re closely monitoring the mountains of the western Carolinas, where a lot of downed trees from Helene could fuel any additional fires that spark this summer.”
AccuWeather’s Data Science team recently updated air pollution forecasting models that will enhance air quality forecasts during and after extreme events like major wildfires, available for free to all users on the AccuWeather app and AccuWeather.com.
Eye on the tropics
AccuWeather hurricane experts and long-range experts predicted a dynamic hurricane season back in March.
The same warm waters in the Gulf that will promote thunderstorms across the East could also fuel tropical storms or even hurricanes in the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic, especially in July and August.
There is a chance for a subtropical or tropical storm to develop before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1.
Beryl was one of the most powerful hurricanes of the 2024 season. It initially spun up in late June, becoming the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record. After causing devastation in parts of the Caribbean, Beryl made landfall in Texas as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, before generating more than 60 tornadoes along its path inland from Texas to upstate New York. Hurricane Beryl caused damage that resulted in power outages that lasted over a week along parts of the Gulf Coast.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists warn that people should be prepared for the potential of extreme heat without access to electricity or air conditioning for up to a week or longer, in the wake of a hurricane landfall, similar to what happened in Texas after Beryl last summer.
Pastelok says a surge of moisture from tropical storms and hurricanes can ease or even wipe out any drought conditions that develop this summer.
“Drought can improve quickly early in the summer from Florida to the Carolinas due to frequent cool fronts and tropical moisture,” Pastelok said.
AccuWeather is predicting 13 to 18 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to six direct U.S. impacts during the Atlantic hurricane season this year.
“Similar to last year, northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva explained. “Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean are also at an increased risk of direct impacts.”
The AccuWeather Hurricane Tracker is available for free on the AccuWeather app and AccuWeather.com, offering innovative features and the most comprehensive and accurate hurricane information available to increase awareness of incoming hurricanes and their impacts, including AccuWeather Forecast Eye Path maps, impact graphics and easily navigable tools to track and follow storms for optimal preparation, protection and insight.
Climate connection
The trend of higher summer temperatures, more intense droughts and extreme heat waves in the U.S. is linked to human-caused climate change, which is warming the atmosphere, according to AccuWeather Climate Expert and Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
“Hundreds of record high temperatures were shattered across the country last summer. We’ll likely experience more record high temperatures being challenged or broken again this summer, especially in the western and central U.S.,” Anderson said. “The data is clear and cannot be ignored; overall temperatures will continue to rise as long as people around the globe continue burning fossil fuels that unleash carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that trap heat in our atmosphere.”
Anderson says the increasing frequency and severity of extreme temperatures, heat waves and droughts are taking a toll on public health and safety in the U.S.
“Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can lead to serious health problems, especially for the most vulnerable, including outdoor workers, athletes, young children and older adults. Heat is the deadliest weather-related threat in the U.S. More people die from extreme heat than from hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and cold weather combined,” Anderson said. “Not only is there a clear trend of hotter afternoons in the summer, but overnight hours are also rapidly getting warmer across much of the country during the summer months. Less relief from the heat at night can contribute to more heat stress and health issues.”
Warmer waters in the Atlantic and the Gulf are also increasing the odds of tropical storms and hurricanes rapidly intensifying before they make landfall. Hotter summers can also impact agriculture, the power grid and water supplies across America.
“The growing season starts earlier and lasts longer in many parts of the country compared to just 50 years ago. Worsening droughts and shifting precipitation patterns are forcing many farmers and ranchers to rely on more irrigation, which can strain water resources during extreme heat waves and drought,” Anderson explained. “Extreme heat, higher evaporation rates and lower river flows have led to less hydroelectric generation in parts of the western U.S. in recent years, a challenge that may worsen in the decades to come. Heat waves can also strain our aging power grid and generation plants that use fossil fuels, including coal and natural gas. The risk to the power supply and the grid is concerning during the hottest days of summer, with the growing demand for electricity to power air conditioning and other cooling equipment at homes and businesses across the country. The demand for reliable power is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years as more data centers go online to support AI and other high-tech businesses and infrastructure.”
Anderson says the impacts of extreme heat and drought are being compounded by the urban heat island effect, as towns and cities across the country continue to develop and expand using more heat-absorbing asphalt and concrete. The most significant impacts are being felt in cities across the Sunbelt region and the Southwest, which are experiencing hotter days and warmer nights.”
Extreme heat, severe weather, wildfires and hurricanes could cause major economic impacts across the U.S. this summer.
AccuWeather experts estimate that extreme weather events have caused a combined $344 billion to $382 billion in total damage and economic loss so far this year, including catastrophic wildfires in California in January, a historic winter storm in the Gulf Coast and Southeast, as well as rounds of flooding and tornado outbreaks in the central U.S. this spring.
Additional AccuWeather Resources:
AccuWeather 2025 U.S. Summer Forecast
Wildfires are expected to scorch more land across America this year compared to the historical average
AccuWeather forecasting 3-6 direct storm impacts to the U.S. during the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season
Highest risk of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected east of Tornado Alley this year
Pollen forecast to reach levels higher than the historical average across 39 states this year
Rare multiday severe weather outbreak and widespread flooding in central US brings preliminary estimate of $80 billion to $90 billion in total damage and economic loss
Extreme Heat: How it can impact your business and success
AccuWeather’s heat wave index helps people better understand and respond to heat dangers
Know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke
How climate change is influencing tornadoes
AccuWeather meteorologists are available 24/7 to provide further insights and updates on evolving weather conditions. Please contact pr@accuweather.com during regular business hours, or support@accuweather.com or call AccuWeather’s Media Hotline at (814)-235-8710 at any time to arrange interviews with AccuWeather experts or to request the most updated graphics for print or broadcast.
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SOURCE AccuWeather
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