Key takeaways:

Bitcoin has historically outperformed gold, more recently by sixfold.

Gold’s climb toward $5,000 could set the stage for significant Bitcoin gains.

Weakening US dollar and rising global liquidity remain key drivers for both assets.

Gold’s march toward $5,000 per ounce and beyond has become a big topic among hard-asset bulls, including Yardeni Research’s head Ed Yardeni and billionaire investor John Paulson.

But what could happen to the price of Bitcoin (BTC), touted as “digital gold” by many, if the precious metal surges even higher?

BTC price jumped 6x last time gold rallied

Bitcoin has historically delivered far more substantial gains than gold when their markets rally concurrently.

From March 2020 to March 2022, during the Federal Reserve’s ultra-loose monetary policies, BTC’s price surged approximately 1,110%, while gold increased by only 35.5%.

XAU/USD vs. BTC/USD and Global M2 supply weekly chart. Source: TradingView

In the November 2022–November 2023 rally, coinciding with rising global money (M2) supply, gold gained about 25%, while Bitcoin jumped by 150% or nearly 6x outperformance.

Related: When gold price hits new highs, history shows ‘Bitcoin follows’ within 150 days — Analyst

Gold’s climb from its current value of around $3,265 to $5,000 will equal 50% gains. So, if history repeats, Bitcoin could grow by 300% or to a price of $285,000 per BTC.

That aligns with analyst apsk32’s projected Bitcoin price target, which is based on a power law model normalized against gold’s market cap.

Source: X/apsk32

Gold boom will push Bitcoin toward $250K — veteran fund manager

Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors, sees gold heading to $6,000 during Trump’s presidential term, arguing that bullion has lagged behind the global M2 money supply surge.

He links this bold target to Trump’s tariff policies, which he believes could weaken the US dollar by around 25%, boosting gold’s appeal alongside strong central bank demand and underweight investor positioning.

Holmes predicts that Bitcoin could break through its $97,000 supply overhang and climb to $120,000–$150,000 in the near term, with a longer-term potential of reaching $250,000 as adoption accelerates.

BTC can hit $155K if gold’s lagging correlation holds

In late April, gold climbed to an all-time high of $3,500, up 33.35% year-to-date (YTD). It has corrected slightly to reach $3,237 as of May 5. In comparison, Bitcoin has risen merely 0.82% YTD.

BTC/USD and XAU/USD daily chart comparison. Source: TradingView

Some market watchers, including analyst Cryptollica, point to Bitcoin’s past behavior of following gold after a lag, suggesting a possible move toward the $155,000 level if it breaks out of its prevailing consolidation range.

BTC/USD vs XAU/USD trend comparison. Source: Cryptollica/X

Bitcoin’s 30% pullback from its record high of around $110,00 appears mild compared to past sell-offs of over 50%. This resilience strengthens its role alongside gold and raises the chance it could follow gold’s rally if market conditions improve.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.