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HTX DeepThink: U.S. Inflation Falls, Liquidity Rises–How Long Can the Rally Last?

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SINGAPORE, May 15, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Since the start of May, macro tailwinds have gained momentum—U.S. inflation cooled, trade tensions began to ease, and the Fed has injected fresh liquidity. Bitcoin has surged back above $100,000, with ETH and SOL also posting strong gains. Yet beneath the surface of this rally, volatility risks remain. In this edition of HTX DeepThink, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) from HTX Research unpacks the macro catalysts, institutional activity, and market structure to assess whether this rally can truly last.

Expectations for Rate Cuts Strengthened, Fed Liquidity Improves

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on May 13, 2025, showed further cooling of inflation, reinforcing market expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year. Headline CPI rose 2.3% year-over-year (vs. 2.4% expected, 2.6% previous), marking the lowest level since March 2021; core CPI was 2.8% (in line with expectations, 3.0% previous). However, it is important to note that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, stood at 2.3% in March, still above the 2% target.

Market support also stemmed from a phase of expanding macro liquidity. The Fed’s total assets rose slightly from $6.70 trillion on April 30 to $6.73 trillion in early May. FED Net Liquidity (balance sheet + TGA – RRP) increased from $4.89 trillion to $4.94 trillion over the same period, injecting about $50 billion of net liquidity. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance rose to $583 billion, while the Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) balance dropped to a record low of $78 billion. This improvement in liquidity was mainly driven by the Fed slowing the pace of QT (reducing Treasury redemptions to $5 billion), the post-tax season Treasury cash inflows, and money market funds reallocating capital out of the RRP.

A significant risk remains, however: should a debt ceiling agreement be reached in July or August, substantial Treasury issuance to replenish the TGA, coupled with an almost depleted RRP buffer, could lead to a tightening of system liquidity once again, potentially exerting downward pressure on risk assets.

Institutional Inflows Power Crypto Rally

Boosted by the improving macro backdrop, crypto market flows rebounded significantly. Bitcoin (BTC) futures open interest (OI) remained at elevated levels, with CME data showing about 660,000 BTC, representing 3.4% of circulating supply, highlighting strong institutional positioning. BTC OI on crypto-native exchanges also rose by 12%, with positions largely concentrated around the $100,000 level. Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) derivatives markets also saw a strong recovery, with ETH OI rising 15% since the first week of May and SOL rebounding 18% from late April lows. On-chain data showed ETH short-term holder (STH) profit addresses rising to approximately 90% and SOL to 88%, approaching historically high thresholds (>90% usually signals local top risk), raising concerns over near-term profit-taking pressures.

Data from Deribit showed that the near-term implied volatility of Bitcoin options decreased from 65% prior to the CPI release to 58%, reflecting expectations of short-term price stability and encouraging some institutions to sell options to capture premium yields. The ETH options market displayed a longer-dated bullish structure, with strong demand for $4,000–$5,000 call options expiring in December, suggesting institutional investors are positioning early for the next potential rally.

Macro Tailwinds Drive Bullish Bias, But Volatility Risks Linger

In summary, the combination of macro liquidity expansion, cooling CPI strengthening rate-cut expectations, sustained institutional allocation, and a rebound in derivatives market risk appetite has driven the strong May rally in BTC, ETH, and SOL.

However, in the short term, the high percentage of short-term holders in profit and the concentration of leveraged positions imply that any breakout or breakdown of key technical levels could trigger concentrated profit-taking and liquidation cascades, leading to heightened volatility. The overall market structure remains defined by a medium-term structural bull trend combined with a short-term consolidation phase.

*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.

About HTX DeepThink:

HTX DeepThink is a flagship market insights column created by HTX, dedicated to exploring global macro trends, key economic indicators, and major developments across the crypto industry. In a world where volatility is the norm, HTX DeepThink aims to help readers “Find Order in Chaos.”

About HTX Research

HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX Group, responsible for conducting in-depth analyses, producing comprehensive reports, and delivering expert evaluations across a broad spectrum of topics, including cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends.

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SOURCE HTX Research

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Asia Poised to Play Bigger Role in Physical AI as Investors Eye Manufacturing, Data

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SAN FRANCISCO, Oct. 27, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Asia’s semiconductor expertise, manufacturing infrastructure and industrial supply chains could give the region a significant role in the development of Physical artificial intelligence (Physical AI), as investors look beyond software to the challenges of deploying intelligent machines in real-world environments.

Speaking at the recently concluded Silicon to Scale: A Physical AI Summit during SF Tech Week, venture capital investors highlighted opportunities for Taiwan, Japan and Southeast Asia as robotics companies move from prototypes toward commercial deployment.

Co-hosted by Startup Island TAIWAN Silicon Valley Hub and SparkLabs Taiwan, also part of SparkLabs Taiwan’s US Landing Program, the summit drew more than 170 investors, industry leaders and founders, and featured five Taiwanese Physical AI startups: Morale AI, MetAI, Jmem Tek, Neuroshine and APMIC.

The Venture Dialogue, ‘What Makes Physical AI Investable?’, was moderated by Bernard Moon, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of SparkLabs Group, with Jeff Tao, Director of AI Infrastructure at Citi; Dr. Vandon Duong, Principal at DCVC; and Kosuke Yusa, GP and Head of Investment at Open Network Lab Fund, DG Incubation, Inc.

Before the venture dialogue, the summit opened with a Corporate Dialogue, ‘From Concept to Production: Physical AI at Scale,’ moderated by James Lim of NVIDIA’s Venture Capital Strategy & Partnerships team. Panelists Austin Tseng, President of Delta Electronics (Americas); Vince Fong, Co-Founder and CEO of Highrise AI; and Daniel Yu, Co-Founder and CEO of MetAI, discussed what it takes to move Physical AI from simulation to real-world deployment, from closing the sim-to-real gap to the compute, edge and energy infrastructure needed to scale.

“Taiwan’s semiconductor and manufacturing strengths are well known in Silicon Valley, and investors here are increasingly keen to partner with Asian strategic investors as Physical AI moves from prototype to production,” said Edgar Chiu, Founding Managing Partner of SparkLabs Taiwan. “Our mission is to be that bridge, bringing Taiwanese founders to US customers and capital, and connecting US companies with Taiwan’s supply chain and strategic investors.”

For Taiwan, the shift could create opportunities to leverage its strengths in semiconductors, electronics and advanced manufacturing, according to Uly Su, director and head of Startup Island TAIWAN Silicon Valley Hub.

Su said the hub is organizing a series of industry dialogues and investor gatherings to connect Taiwanese startups with Silicon Valley’s technology and investment communities. The initiatives aim to help founders identify commercial opportunities, build international partnerships and strengthen Taiwan’s position in the emerging Physical AI industry.

Asia’s manufacturing advantage

Jeff Tao, Director, AI Infrastructure at Citi said Asia’s established semiconductor and electronics supply chains could provide a foundation for the growth of Physical AI, particularly as companies seek to diversify production amid geopolitical uncertainty.

He pointed to semiconductor assembly and testing operations in Southeast Asia, including Malaysia, as examples of existing manufacturing capabilities that could support emerging technologies.

Taiwan, meanwhile, occupies an important position in the global semiconductor industry, providing expertise and manufacturing infrastructure relevant to the development of AI-powered robotics.

Tao said Physical AI companies could benefit from combining Asia’s manufacturing strengths with access to the United States, where high labor costs are creating opportunities for industrial automation.

Kosuke Yusa, GP & Head of Investment, Open Network Lab Fund, DG Incubation, Inc.said Japan offers a different advantage: industrial environments that demand flexibility and continuous improvement.

Japanese production lines frequently change, requiring robotics systems that can adapt to different tasks and operating conditions, he said.

The missing piece: Real-world data

Despite Asia’s manufacturing capabilities, investors identified access to training data as a major obstacle to the commercialization of Physical AI.

Unlike large language models, which can draw on extensive digital information, robotics systems require specialized datasets collected from factories, production lines and other physical environments.

Tao said collecting such information is particularly difficult because manufacturers are reluctant to share proprietary operational data.

Dr. Vandon Duong Principal at DCVC (Data Collective Venture Capital) said AI developers are willing to pay substantial amounts for diverse, well-annotated datasets, creating opportunities for startups specializing in data collection.

However, he questioned how companies could build lasting competitive advantages as more businesses enter the market.

Computing costs and investment opportunities

The panel also discussed rising AI infrastructure spending and the constraints it creates for emerging companies.

Tao said electricity availability has become an increasingly important bottleneck for AI infrastructure development in the United States, following earlier constraints involving GPUs and data centers.

He identified opportunities for startups developing more efficient power systems, cooling technologies and semiconductor manufacturing processes.

Duong said investors are also examining technologies that reduce inference costs and improve computing efficiency.

From Taiwan to Silicon Valley

The discussion underscored the potential for Asian Physical AI startups to combine regional manufacturing capabilities with American capital, customers and technology markets.

Investors said founders must understand the requirements of industrial customers, particularly when developing systems for manufacturing environments where reliability and adaptability are critical.

While panelists acknowledged concerns about AI valuations and infrastructure costs, they remained optimistic about long-term adoption.

Tao also cautioned that productivity gains from AI could create short-term labor displacement, raising broader questions about how the economic benefits of automation will be distributed.

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SOURCE Startup Island TAIWAN Silicon Valley Hub

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S&P Global Reports Third Quarter Results; Announces Strategic Review for Capital IQ and Associated Data Businesses

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NEW YORK, Oct. 27, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) today reported third quarter results. The Company’s earnings release and supplemental materials are available at http://investor.spglobal.com/Quarterly-Earnings. 

Supplemental Information/Conference Call/Webcast Details: The Company’s senior management will review the third quarter 2026 earnings results on a conference call scheduled for today, October 27, at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Additional information presented on the conference call, and the Company’s supplemental slide content may be found on the Company’s Investor Relations Website at http://investor.spglobal.com/Quarterly-Earnings. 

The Webcast will be available live and in replay at http://investor.spglobal.com/Quarterly-Earnings. 

About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) enables businesses, governments, and individuals with trusted data, expertise and technology to make decisions with conviction. We are Advancing Essential Intelligence through world-leading benchmarks, data, and insights that customers need in order to plan confidently, act decisively, and thrive in a rapidly changing global landscape.

From helping our customers assess new investments across the capital and commodities markets to navigating the energy expansion, acceleration of artificial intelligence, and evolution of public and private markets, we enable the world’s leading organizations to unlock opportunities, solve challenges, and plan for tomorrow – today. Learn more at www.spglobal.com.

Investor Relations: http://investor.spglobal.com 

Contact:

Investor Relations:
Mark Grant
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer
Tel: +1 (347) 640-1521
mark.grant@spglobal.com 

Media:
Christina Twomey
Chief Communications Officer
Tel: +1 (646) 407-3001
christina.twomey@spglobal.com 

 

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SOURCE S&P Global

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Common Thread Advisors launches to help organizations untangle complex change

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Co-founded by five industry leaders with a legacy of delivering growth and transformation

NEW YORK, Oct. 27, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Common Thread Advisors (Common Thread), a new independent consultancy, launched today to move organizations from strategic intent to commercial impact. Common Thread guides organizations through transformation and change by closing the gap between leadership strategy and human behavior—so change stops being something teams recover from and starts being something they build on.

Common Thread was co-founded and is being led by five industry leaders with decades of senior in-house and consultancy-side experience across business strategy, change management, digital and AI-enabled transformation, strategic communications and social investment. The team brings deep lived experience, having led its former consultancy firm KYNE through a multi-year, global integration and private equity-driven transformation. All five co-founders are Partners, with Wendy Woods-Williams serving as Managing Partner and David Kyne as Executive Chair.

Wendy Woods-Williams — Managing PartnerMaureen Byrne — Partner, Client Experience & GrowthMichael Grela — Partner, Operations & ImpactDavid Kyne — Partner, Executive ChairJulie O’Donnell — Partner, Strategy & Innovation

Organizations and their leaders are facing increasingly complex internal and external pressures and a rapidly evolving environment, requiring near-constant transformation to support innovation and growth. At the same time, technology and change often move faster than teams can absorb and cultures can evolve, causing the majority of transformations to ultimately fail in practice.

“One of the most important performance drivers in transformation strategy is whether the people who must deliver the change are not just briefed or trained, but truly with you. When organizations don’t fully invest in the human side of change, the result is often stalled adoption, lost productivity and strategies that never fully land, impacting the bottom line,” said Wendy Woods-Williams, Co-Founder and Managing Partner, Common Thread. “We built Common Thread to do things differently. Our team is senior from day one and 100% focused on change by design, allowing us to stay close to the work while being credible in the boardroom. We partner with clients to identify critical business drivers and develop approaches around them, helping organizations move through and benefit from change, faster.”

“After years moving in different directions, what felt like gravity pulled this team back together with a collective desire to create a new kind of firm—one that draws on our common experience navigating change and meets a growing need across industries and geographies,” said David Kyne, Co-Founder and Executive Chair, Common Thread. “We work with clients to identify and act on the common threads that connect teams and cultures, impacting their ability to achieve their goals and reach their commercial potential. We connect intent with execution and proof.”

Common Thread’s offering is built on decades of established change management, human behavior and communications research and models, and includes several interconnected service areas:

Transformation and Change: Change is only successful when people truly understand it, trust it, and know what to do differently. Common Thread makes sure strategies land by building belief in the approach, the plan, and the people leading it.Leadership and Culture: Engaged and productive teams require trust in leadership and a set of values and a culture that live beyond the handbook. Common Thread helps protect and build leadership trust and shape the culture teams and strategies need to deliver.Social Performance and Impact: Societal value and impact are important business indicators but can be difficult to track. Common Thread helps prioritize and connect commitments to measures that impact reputation and the bottom line.

Common Thread’s unique approach is centered around four key conditions shaping change—clarity, agency, capacity and trust—helping quickly identify what matters most and prioritize efforts with the greatest impact. From friction and trust mapping to strategic leadership engagement, listening tours and manager sprints, Common Thread provides a comprehensive suite of transformation and change-related offerings, built to address each client’s specific needs. Clients often engage Common Thread during leadership transitions, business transformations, growth periods, mergers, acquisitions, restructurings, AI integrations and the rollout of new operating models and policies.

Common Thread works as an extension of client teams, operating inside live programs, close to the real decisions and trade-offs that determine whether change happens. Measurement is built into every engagement, connecting human factors to business outcomes and creating a consistent evidence base for ongoing improvement.

About Common Thread Advisors
Common Thread Advisors (Common Thread) is an independent consultancy that helps turn strategic intent into commercial impact. Too often, strategy sits apart from the people responsible for bringing it to life. Common Thread ensures transformation lands by bridging the gap between strategy and human behavior. We get people engaged, leaders empowered and strategies delivered in practice—so organizations can move through and benefit from change, faster. Across transformation and change, leadership and culture, and social performance and impact, we connect intent with execution and proof. That’s complex change, untangled.

Common Thread is values- and purpose-driven. We’re committed to being a good corporate citizen and a best place to work by operating at the highest ethical standards, working with clients who share our philosophy and values and donating a percentage of future annual profits to causes impacting our communities.

To learn more, visit LinkedIn, Instagram and www.CommonThreadAdvisors.com. 

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