Moody’s credit rating agency downgraded the credit rating of the United States government from Aaa to Aa1, citing the rising national debt as the primary driver behind the reduction in creditworthiness.

According to the May 16 announcement from the rating agency, US lawmakers have failed to stem annual deficits or reduce spending over the years, leading to a growing national debt. The rating agency wrote:

“We do not believe that material multi-year reductions in mandatory spending and deficits will result from the current fiscal proposals under consideration. Over the next decade, we expect larger deficits as entitlement spending rises while government revenue remains broadly flat.”

The credit downgrade is only one degree out of the 21-notch rating scale used by the company to assess the credit health of an entity.

An overview of the US national debt. Source: US National Debt Clock

Despite the negative short to medium-term credit outlook, Moody’s maintained a positive outlook on the long-term health of the United States, citing its robust economy and the status of the US dollar as the global reserve currency as strengths, reflecting “balanced” lending risks.

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Investors react to Moody’s US credit revision

Moody’s announcement drew mixed reactions from investors and market participants, leaving many unconvinced by the agency’s revised outlook.

Gabor Gurbacs, CEO and founder of crypto loyalty rewards company Pointsville, cited the rating agency’s previous credit assessments during times of financial stress as unreliable, signaling that the outlook was too optimistic.

“This is the same Moody’s that gave Aaa ratings to sub-prime mortgage-backed securities that led to the 2007-2008 financial crisis,” the executive wrote in a May 17 X post.

However, macroeconomic investor Jim Bianco argued that the recent Moody’s credit outlook does not reflect a real downgrade in the perception of US government creditworthiness and characterized the announcement as a “nothing burger.”

Interest rates on the 30-year US Treasury Bond spiked to nearly 5% in May 2025, signaling reduced long-term investor confidence in US debt. Source: TradingView

US government debt surpassed $36 trillion in January 2025 and shows no signs of slowing, despite recent efforts by Elon Musk and others to reduce federal spending and curtail the national debt.

As the debt climbs and investors lose faith in US government securities, bond yields will spike, causing the debt service payments to go up, further inflating the national debt.

This creates a vicious cycle as the government will have to entice investors with ever-greater yields to incentivize them to purchase government debt.

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