Selling Bitcoin is like “playing in a really bad house-rate casino,” according to Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and one of Bitcoin’s earliest adopters. In a recent interview with Bitcoin financial services firm Unchained, Back said the odds are stacked against traders trying to time the market.

Back came to this conclusion in the early days of Bitcoin, he said, when the price “was going up basically exponentially but it [was] extremely volatile.”

“So […] if you see something that’s going up exponentially but with volatility, if you sell it to time the market a bit falling, the odds are against you,” Back said, adding:

“The trend line is up and to the right, exponential, and so there’s extremely bad trading odds attached to selling because you’re really hoping that it falls.”Adam Back during the interview. Source: Unchained

Bitcoin is known for its extreme volatility and heightened bull-bear market cycles. It has seen multiple corrections above 80%, which may test the stomach of many investors and believers. However, those who have remained steady through the ups and downs have been rewarded: In the last 10 years, BTC has had a total return of over 39,000%.

“I think anything that has a really rapid growth curve ends up with some pretty extreme volatility until it gets closer to full adoption,” Back said.

Average returns of the Bitcoin index. Source: Curvo

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Diminishing returns theory might not be in play this cycle

Back pointed to several factors that could support upward price momentum. He noted that companies like Strategy are not only acquiring Bitcoin directly but also offering indirect exposure through instruments such as convertible notes.

Another contributing factor is the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, including investments by sovereign wealth funds. He cited Abu Dhabi’s $408.5 million stake in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF.

Finally, government entities are starting to venture into crypto. US President Donald Trump issued an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, while the US state of New Hampshire’s governor recently signed such a reserve into law. Texas lawmakers recently passed a bill allowing the that state to create a state Bitcoin reserve.

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