Research from the BCG Henderson Institute Details Four Plausible Scenarios for the World over the Next 25 Years, Based on Analysis of More Than 100 Megatrends and a Century of Historical Data

BOSTON, April 20, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — The global economy could follow markedly different paths over the next 25 years. For business leaders, the challenge is how to make decisions today while preparing for a wide range of possible futures.

New Scenarios 2050 research from the BCG Henderson Institute (BHI), Boston Consulting Group’s think tank, anticipates four distinct futures that push boundaries but remain plausible. The report explores what each scenario could mean for businesses and how early signals may indicate which direction the world is heading.

Among the findings:

Global GDP growth could slow to about 1.8% or rise to 5.0% annually, with the economy reaching anywhere from 1.6 to 3.4 times today’s size.Global trade could fall to about 35% of GDP—roughly Cold War–era levels—or remain near current levels of about 60%.Defense spending could climb to as much as 7% of global GDP.Low-carbon electricity could account for 55% to 90% of power generation.

The report, Beyond Tomorrow: Four Scenarios for the World of 2050, is based on a century of historical data and analysis of more than 100 megatrends across technology, geopolitics, climate, society, and economics.

“The decisions made in the next 5 years will shape the next 25,” said Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute and a coauthor of the report. “Too often, the future is framed in extremes—either collapse or abundance. In reality, leaders need to be ready for a range of outcomes and make decisions that hold up across very different conditions.”

Four Plausible Futures Leaders Should Plan For

Each scenario presents a different operating environment for businesses, reflecting the range of conditions leaders may face.

Scenario 1: AI Abundance. Global cooperation on AI standards leads to faster productivity growth, wider access to technology, and abundant low-carbon energy:

Global GDP more than triples, growing by about 5% annually from 2025 to 2050—the highest level across BHI’s four plausible scenarios.Average working hours fall by about 25%, with four- or even three-day workweeks becoming common in some regions.AI-supported advances in new materials and carbon removal put the world on a delayed but credible path to net zero emissions.

Scenario 2: Battling Blocs. Geopolitical tensions divide the world into competing blocs, reducing cooperation and reshaping global trade:

Global trade falls to about 35% of global GDP, down from 57% in 2024—reversing decades of globalization.Defense spending rises to about 7% of global GDP, the highest across BHI’s four scenarios, as countries prioritize security and self-sufficiency.Global GDP growth slows to about 1.8% annually, the lowest across the four scenarios, underpinned by government spending on national security, pensions, and climate mitigation.

Scenario 3: Climate Coalition. A series of extreme weather events in the late 2020s push governments, industries, and consumers to prioritize climate resilience, accelerating the shift to low-carbon energy and infrastructure:

Global warming stabilizes at about 1.8°C.Carbon markets expand globally, with most major economies participating by 2040.The share of fossil fuels in the energy mix falls from 81% today to 35% in 2050, while electricity is generated almost entirely from low-carbon sources.Global GDP growth averages about 2.5% annually, reflecting a focus on the climate transition, slower population growth, and aging societies.

Scenario 4: Digital Darwinism. Rapid technological progress continues under limited regulation, driving strong growth while concentrating wealth and power among leading companies and tech-rich nations:

Global GDP grows at 4% per year, resulting in a near tripling of GDP.The richest 1% holds nearly half of global wealth, while the middle class continues to shrink.Gig-style and short-term contract work expands as AI and automation displace routine knowledge work.Defense spending rises to about 4% of GDP, up from 2.4% in 2024, as the global order becomes more fragmented. At the same time, global trade and supply chains remain open, driven by commercial interests.

What Leaders Can Do Now

 Across all four scenarios, the report highlights “low regret” moves that make sense for business leaders today, including:

Enhance structural resilience. Rebalance toward resilience over efficiency to maintain operations in a more volatile environment.Reimagine talent for aging populations and AI. Build strategies for intergenerational work, more flexible roles, and talent mobility—and recruit more widely, especially from emerging labor markets.Build digital flexibility and trust. Take a modular approach to tech and data stacks that accounts for rapidly changing technologies.Sharpen sensing and influencing capabilities. Develop sensing capacities along dimensions like regulation, geopolitics, resources, and technology. Build the capability to act on them quickly.Embrace a broader societal role. Prepare to shoulder more responsibility for workers’ well-being, local resilience, crisis management, and community needs.

“No one can predict exactly what 2050 will look like, but the forces shaping it are already visible,” said Alan Iny, a partner and director at BCG, a BCG Henderson Institute Fellow, and a coauthor of the report. “Planning for a single future is a gamble. The advantage will go to leaders who prepare for multiple futures and act to shape them before the direction of the world is clear.”

Download the publication here: https://www.bcg.com/publications/2026/beyond-tomorrow-four-scenarios-for-the-world-of-2050

Media Contact:                            
Eric Gregoire
+1 617 850 3783
gregoire.eric@bcg.com

About the BCG Henderson Institute
The BCG Henderson Institute is Boston Consulting Group’s strategy think tank, dedicated to exploring and developing valuable new insights from business, technology, and science by embracing the powerful technology of ideas. The Institute engages leaders in provocative discussion and experimentation to expand the boundaries of business theory and practice and to translate innovative ideas from within and beyond business. For more ideas and inspiration from the Institute, please visit our website and follow us on LinkedIn and X (formerly Twitter).

About Boston Consulting Group
Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963. Today, we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholders—empowering organizations to grow, build sustainable competitive advantage, and drive positive societal impact.

Our diverse, global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives that question the status quo and spark change. BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting, technology and design, and corporate and digital ventures. We work in a uniquely collaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization, fueled by the goal of helping our clients thrive and enabling them to make the world a better place.

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SOURCE Boston Consulting Group (BCG)

GIMHAE-SI, South Korea, April 20, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — DEKRA, a leading global provider of testing, inspection, and certification services, today announced it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Global Product Service Co., Ltd (GPS), a prominent South Korean company renowned for its expertise in consumer electronics product testing and certification.

This strategic acquisition will significantly enhance DEKRA Korea’s capabilities within the rapidly growing consumer electronics sector, bringing together DEKRA’s global network and comprehensive service portfolio with GPS’s deep-rooted local knowledge and decades of experience serving South Korea’s leading manufacturers.

GPS has established a strong reputation for its in-depth technical expertise and unwavering commitment to quality, particularly within the consumer electronics market. For many years, GPS has been a trusted partner to major South Korean electronics companies, providing testing and certification services that ensure product safety, performance, and compliance with international standards.

The successful acquisition is a result of the strong collaboration and commitment from both DEKRA and GPS. Key representatives who participated in the signing, embodying this collaboration, were Dr. Kilian Aviles, Executive Vice President of DEKRA Group and Head of Asia Pacific Region; Ming Sheng, Vice President of Automotive Testing, DEKRA China; Young Seok Lee, CEO of Global Product Service Co., Ltd; and Seong Su Kim, Director of Global Product Service Co., Ltd.

“We are thrilled to welcome Global Product Service Co., Ltd to the DEKRA family,” said Dr. Kilian Aviles, Executive Vice President of DEKRA Group and Head of Asia Pacific Region. “This acquisition represents a significant milestone in our growth strategy in South Korea. GPS’s deep understanding of the local market, combined with their specialized expertise in consumer electronics, perfectly complements DEKRA’s global strengths. Together, we will offer unparalleled testing and certification solutions to our clients, empowering them to bring innovative and reliable products to market with greater speed and confidence.”

The integration of GPS into DEKRA Korea will leverage synergies in technology, talent, and market reach. This will enable DEKRA to further support South Korean manufacturers as they navigate complex global regulatory landscapes and strive for excellence in product development and quality assurance. Clients can expect a seamless transition and continued access to the high-quality services they have come to rely on from both organizations.

Young Seok Lee, CEO of Global Product Service Co., Ltd commented, “Joining forces with DEKRA is an exciting opportunity for GPS. DEKRA’s global reach and extensive resources will allow us to expand our service offerings and better serve our existing and future clients. We are confident that this partnership will create significant value for the South Korean consumer electronics industry, providing enhanced support and innovation.”

About DEKRA

For more than 100 years, DEKRA has been a trusted name in safety. Founded in 1925 with the original goal of improving road safety through vehicle inspections, DEKRA has grown to become the world’s largest independent, non-listed expert organization in the field of testing, inspection, and certification. Today, as a global partner, the company supports its customers with comprehensive services and solutions to drive safety and sustainability forward—fully aligned with DEKRA’s anniversary motto, “Securing the Future.” In 2024, DEKRA generated revenue of 4.3 billion euros. Around 48,000 employees are providing qualified and independent expert services in approximately 60 countries across five continents. DEKRA holds a Platinum rating from EcoVadis, placing it among the top 1% of the world’s most sustainable companies.

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SOURCE DEKRA Asia Pacific

GUANGZHOU, China, April 20, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — From April 15-19, 2026, at the 139th Canton Fair, clean energy innovator BLUETTI presented an integrated Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) solution that combines digital distribution tools with off-grid energy products, as the company expands its presence in emerging markets, particularly across Africa.

The solution brings together BLUETTI’s proprietary BLUETTI GO platform and a range of PAYGO-enabled solar home systems, reflecting a broader shift in the industry from standalone hardware sales to more structured distribution and financing models.

PAYGO has gained traction in regions where upfront costs remain a key barrier to energy access. By enabling installment-based payments and remote device management, the model allows consumers to access electricity services with lower initial investment, while offering distributors greater visibility into repayment and asset performance.

BLUETTI GO serves as a centralized platform for distributors, integrating sales tracking, inventory control, credit profiling, payment overdue tracking, risk monitoring, and operational analysis. These features are designed to help partners operate more efficiently and support long-term business planning in PAYGO-driven markets.

The company’s product lineup includes entry-level solar home systems such as the P80(battery capacity 76.8Wh), to African Star (battery capacity 1728Wh), designed for basic electricity needs, as well as the higher-capacity Home Star (battery capacity 2kWh-5kWh) series for off-grid household energy storage. These systems can be deployed independently or bundled with appliances such as televisions, fans, and lighting equipment.

As demand for decentralized energy solutions grows across Africa, supported by both public and private investment in renewable infrastructure, PAYGO models are playing a larger role in bridging the gap between energy access and affordability. 

Driven by product breakthroughs and innovative business practices, BLUETTI has been enlarging its footprint in the region in recent years. The company operates across more than 40 African countries, supported by local teams and pilot programs, including a Nigerian initiative launched in 2020 that has expanded into a network of branded retail outlets.

About BLUETTI

Founded in 2013, BLUETTI is a leading global provider of energy storage solutions, specializing in home solar batteries, portable power stations, and solar generators. Through initiatives like the LAAF (Lighting Africa Affordable Financing program), BLUETTI aims to power 1 million African families in off-grid areas. Today, it serves over 3.5 million users in 140+ countries and regions. Learn more: https://bluetti.com/

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