GENERATION INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT’S 8TH ANNUAL SUSTAINABILITY TRENDS REPORT HIGHLIGHTS THE WEAKENING OF CLIMATE COMMITMENTS AND BREAKING OF PROMISES

LONDON and SAN FRANCISCO, Sept. 18, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Generation Investment Management, the sustainable investment manager, today published its eighth Sustainability Trends Report, which annually seeks to answer the question of where the world stands in the transition to a low-emissions economy. This year’s assessment analyses how climate promises are starting to resemble New Year’s resolutions: easy to make, hard to keep. It also covers the shifts needed across the global economy – spanning the power sector; transportation; buildings; industry; people, land & food; and climate finance.

Al Gore, Chairman and Founding Partner of Generation Investment Management, said: “Year after year, the world has increased the number and types of solutions available to solve the climate crisis. But leaders across government and business have all too frequently failed to match ingenuity with action. Despite the hype, hope and harmony generated by the agreement at last year’s international climate negotiations to “transition away” from the fossil fuels that are the root cause of the climate crisis, the reality today is that way too little has improved at the pace and scale needed. It is imperative that investors, business leaders and government officials understand that even though the collective ability to solve the climate crisis is within our reach, a lack of courage, fortitude and determination at a global scale threatens to allow the progress that is so urgently needed to slip through our fingers.”

TRANSITION FROM FOSSIL FUELS – WRITTEN INTO INTERNATIONAL LAW AT LONG LAST 

The great achievement of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) held in Dubai in December 2023 was that transitioning away from fossil fuels is now a formal goal of the countries of the world, written into international law. The biggest climate promise ever made is finally on the table and humans have it within their grasp to effect change at the scale and pace required.

The language of the COP28 agreement is fairly weak, however, with calls rejected for using the term ‘phase out’ in relation to fossil fuels, and no detail about how to achieve the transition. But countries did agree to set new goals relating to the energy transition, agreeing to triple the world’s installed base of renewable electricity by 2030. The potential impact of this cannot be overstated because the grid system will become the key to the future, enabling the shift to what is effectively an ‘electrify everything’ approach.

BROKEN PROMISES, FRESH HOPES

Climate commitments have been dealt a blow in recent times. Political pressure and ‘woke capital’ attacks over the past two years have contributed to reductions of capital allocated to sustainable investing and nowhere is this more disappointing than amongst the financial-services industry which has pulled back from commitments made only a couple of years ago. Oil and gas companies have been pulling back on their commitments to invest in alternative energy while maintaining or increasing their fossil investments, deepening a credibility gap between their rhetoric about net zero and their actions.

Against this negative backdrop, there remains plenty of hope because it is possible that we are on the precipice of a different momentous change. Renewable electricity is growing rapidly now, so much so that emissions from power production are falling sharply in some countries. Moreover, electricity demand is starting to grow in many developed economies where it had been stagnant for a decade. This is mostly good news, for it means that the exhortation to ‘electrify everything’ is working. Focus then shifts to the significant grid upgrades required to harness the wave of low-cost solar and wind, the answer of which lies in urgent improvements to planning and reductions in red tape. To achieve this, a step change is required from one specific set of actors: governments. They hold the keys to make the policy changes to unleash the expansion of electrification, at least in the major economies of China, the US, the EU, Latin America and India. 

IS THE GEOPOLITICS OF CLIMATE TRANSITION BROKEN?

Important, large-scale change requires the determination and courage of groups of people to make things happen. But geopolitics also poses a significant threat to any kind of progress in the transition. China was the biggest investor in clean energy in 2024, is the largest producer of solar panels, electric cars, electric buses, and the most important manufacturer of advanced batteries. But China’s return to an aggressive form of authoritarianism under Xi Jinping has put it at loggerheads with many of its trading partners. China’s military adventurism, its threats to invade Taiwan, its theft of technology from other countries, its repression of the Uyghur ethnic group and many other factors are leading to something like a Cold War between China and the West – which could lead to the energy transition getting caught up in the crossfire.

Elsewhere in the world, observers will be closely watching the results of this year’s US election. The Inflation Reduction Act has created a positive framework for change but the wider signals in the US do not paint a wholly positive picture. The prospect of new tariffs, trade barriers, protectionism or tearing up international treaties altogether threatens to cast a large shadow over the world economy and its efforts to deliver on decarbonisation in this critical decade.

Accelerating trends outlined in the report include:

Power

Renewable electricity is now growing rapidly, with solar energy being the breakout star, with the installation of new panels up 74 percent in a single year. But power demand is starting to grow rapidly too: new data centres are gulping down electricity, and more cars and heat pumps are drawing power from the grid. It remains unclear when we will turn the corner and see electricity emissions finally begin to fall.

Transport

The transition to electric cars is hitting speed bumps in some markets, notably the United States, with carmakers like Ford scaling back their transition plans. But other countries are moving forward, especially China, where electric cars are now the economical choice and are taking half the new-car market. We have yet to see much progress in cutting emissions from planes, ships or lorries/trucks.

Buildings

The buildings sector is not remotely on track for the emissions cuts needed to meet global climate goals. The slow progress from tougher building codes in some countries is being swamped by breakneck urbanisation and weak or non-existent building codes in many countries. Heat pumps are a bright spot, their popularity rising in some parts of the world.

Industry

Progress is still halting in the industrial sector, but we are beginning to see movement. Plans were announced for new low-emissions steel plants using clean hydrogen, with the number of such factories on the drawing board rising from two to six. Green hydrogen is critical to the emissions-cutting plans of some other industries, and electrolyser additions in 2023 were more than quadruple 2022 additions. The world also needs to get control of plastic pollution – industry is responsible for the 34% of excess carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere, and plastic accounts for three percentage points of this.

People, land & food

The climate crisis seems to be contributing to high food prices that have driven the number of hungry people in the world up by 150 million in this decade. Global hunger worsened during the pandemic in 2020 and the problem has not abated. Far more work needs to be done by governments to secure the food supply in an overheating climate and to encourage the spread of better farming practices. The destruction of tropical forests has abated somewhat under a new government in Brazil, and Indonesia has had dramatic success in cutting deforestation through the actions of the central government, but the topic remains an urgent global problem.

Financing the transition

We have finally reached the point where nearly $2 is being spent on clean energy infrastructure for every $1 spent on fossil fuels, a ratio that was closer to 1-to-1 only five years ago. But clean investment needs to accelerate rapidly, to $4 trillion or $5 trillion a year by 2030, to meet the world’s climate goals. Big banks are still shovelling tens of billions into the development of new fossil fuels, despite their pledges to align their lending with the climate transition.

Looking ahead

A fundamental tension has developed in the energy transition: governments want to use it as a core element of their industrial policy, to create new jobs in domestic factories, even as they try to move rapidly to clean energy. The two goals are in conflict, given China’s nearly insurmountable head start in solar panels, electric cars, batteries and other green technologies. How this tension gets resolved will determine how fast the energy transition can proceed.

About Generation Investment Management

Generation Investment Management LLP is dedicated to long-term investing, integrated sustainability research and client alignment. It is an independent, private, owner-managed partnership established in 2004 and headquartered in London, with a US presence in San Francisco, with more than $44 billion of assets under management and supervision.1 For further information, please visit https://www.generationim.com/

1 Assets under management as at 30 June 2024 are $33.8 billion. Assets under supervision (AUS) are $10.5 billion as at 31 March 2024. AUS form part of our Private Equity strategy and include assets where Generation sourced, structured and/or negotiated the investment and in relation to which it provides certain ongoing advisory services for a fee.

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