Industry looks to shield itself from trade wars, inflation, possible recession
DUBAI, UAE, Feb. 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — More than 62% of logistics industry professionals say they’ve overhauled their supply chains to safeguard against inflation, looming trade tariffs, the possibility of a global economic downturn and other major risks.
Entering 2025, the logistics industry is looking to protect itself from rising costs and a potential trade war ignited by expected U.S. tariff hikes and a flood of exports from China, according to a survey of 567 executives for the 2025 Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index.
Nearly 55% of respondents see a global recession as likely or certain. Almost 82% say tariffs and other trade protectionism are having a significant impact on their supply chains. Seventy-two percent say risks in emerging markets have increased over the past year.
“There is wariness and uncertainty among shippers, carriers, forwarders and others when it comes to the geopolitical factors that drive up costs, affect trade volumes, and alter supply chains,” says Agility Vice Chairman Tarek Sultan. “Companies doing business internationally continue to shift production as they re-evaluate investment plans and search for durable paths to growth.”
The survey and Index are Agility’s 16th annual snapshot of industry sentiment and ranking of the world’s 50 leading emerging markets. The Index ranks countries for overall competitiveness based on domestic and international logistics strengths, business climates and digital readiness — factors that make them attractive to logistics providers, freight forwarders, air and ocean carriers, distributors and investors.
The 2025 Index features an in-depth analysis of the Arabian Gulf economies. Individually and as a group, the six Gulf countries are positioning themselves as global trade hubs, investing heavily in infrastructure, AI, energy transition, and workforce development. Despite increasing risk to global supply chains, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries have become “beacons of stability” and resilience, the Index concludes.
Stability at the top of the 50-country rankings was accompanied by volatility and movement further down in the Index. China, India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mexico, Qatar, Thailand and Vietnam rank 1 through 10. Colombia (No. 21) leaped up the rankings; Nigeria (43), Bangladesh (39) and Ukraine (40) tumbled.
The six Gulf countries all are among the top 11 for business conditions: UAE again tops the rankings for best business climate; Saudi Arabia is 3rd; Qatar 5th. The countries most digitally ready are China, UAE, Malaysia, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
In international logistics opportunities, China, India, Mexico, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia rank highest. In domestic logistics, the leaders are China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and UAE.
2025 Index Highlights
SURVEY
China – 54% intend to move production or sourcing out of China in the next five years with U.S.-China trade friction, labor costs and increasing domestic regulation being the biggest factors.Africa – Despite seeing heightened risks in emerging markets, 35% plan to boost investment in Africa in 2025 vs. only 8% planning to cut back there.Net-Zero – Nearly 65% say their companies are on track to meet net-zero goals.
COUNTRY RANKINGS
In the Middle East and North Africa, overall rankings are: UAE (3); Saudi Arabia (4); Qatar (8); Turkey (11); Oman (14); Bahrain (16); Jordan (17); Kuwait (18); Egypt (24); Morocco (26); Iran (32); Tunisia (36); Algeria (38); Lebanon (42); Libya (46).Rankings in Sub-Saharan Africa: South Africa (20); Kenya (22); Ghana (31); Tanzania (37); Uganda (41); Nigeria (43); Ethiopia (45); Angola (47); Mozambique (48).Rankings in Asia: China (1); India (2); Malaysia (5); Indonesia (6); Thailand (9); Vietnam (10); Philippines (23); Kazakhstan (25); Sri Lanka (27); Cambodia (30); Pakistan (33); Bangladesh (39); Myanmar (49).Rankings for Latin America: Mexico (7); Chile (11); Brazil (13); Uruguay (19); Colombia (21); Peru (28); Argentina (29); Ecuador (34); Paraguay (35); Bolivia (44); Venezuela (50).In Europe: Ukraine (40).
Transport Intelligence (Ti), a leading analysis and research firm for the logistics industry, has compiled the Index since it was launched in 2009.
John Manners-Bell, Chief Executive of Ti, said: “The supply chain industry is entering a new era in which the ability to respond to macro-economic and geopolitical events will be critical. The looming prospect of tariffs and trade wars will force shippers to re-evaluate the resilience of their production, off-shoring and sourcing strategies and it will be imperative for logistics providers to respond appropriately in a timely and effective manner.”
2025 Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index: agility.com/2025index
About Agility
Agility is a global leader in supply chain services, infrastructure, and innovation with 60,000+ employees across six continents. A multi-business operator and investor, Agility specializes in growing and scaling operating businesses. Agility’s companies include the world’s largest aviation services company (Menzies Aviation); a global fuel logistics business (Tristar); a leading logistics parks developer and operator across the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa (Agility Logistics Parks); and a commercial real-estate company developing a mega-mall in the UAE (UPAC). Other Agility companies offer customs digitization services, remote-site infrastructure services, defense and government services, and ecommerce-enablement and digital logistics. Agility invests in supply chain innovation, sustainability, and resilience, and has minority holdings in a growing portfolio of listed and non-listed companies.
For more information about Agility, visit:
Website: www.agility.com
Twitter: twitter.com/agility
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/agility
YouTube: youtube.com/user/agilitycorp
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